Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% for the NY-20 House seat due to longtime incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection bid in a D+8 district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Tonko captured 61% of the vote in 2024 against a Republican challenger, building on consistent double-digit margins amid the district's reliable Democratic performance in presidential and midterm cycles. No polls are available yet, but Tonko's early fundraising and lack of retirement signals reinforce his dominance. Republican Ralph Ambrosio announced his candidacy in January, yet poses minimal threat per historical base rates in safe seats. Primaries on June 23 could influence nominees ahead of the November 3 general election, though odds could shift via Tonko scandal, unexpected retirement, superior GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$18,327 Vol.
$18,327 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$18,327 Vol.
$18,327 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$10,872 Vol.
93%
共和党
$7,455 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% for the NY-20 House seat due to longtime incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection bid in a D+8 district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Tonko captured 61% of the vote in 2024 against a Republican challenger, building on consistent double-digit margins amid the district's reliable Democratic performance in presidential and midterm cycles. No polls are available yet, but Tonko's early fundraising and lack of retirement signals reinforce his dominance. Republican Ralph Ambrosio announced his candidacy in January, yet poses minimal threat per historical base rates in safe seats. Primaries on June 23 could influence nominees ahead of the November 3 general election, though odds could shift via Tonko scandal, unexpected retirement, superior GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$18,327終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% for the NY-20 House seat due to longtime incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection bid in a D+8 district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Tonko captured 61% of the vote in 2024 against a Republican challenger, building on consistent double-digit margins amid the district's reliable Democratic performance in presidential and midterm cycles. No polls are available yet, but Tonko's early fundraising and lack of retirement signals reinforce his dominance. Republican Ralph Ambrosio announced his candidacy in January, yet poses minimal threat per historical base rates in safe seats. Primaries on June 23 could influence nominees ahead of the November 3 general election, though odds could shift via Tonko scandal, unexpected retirement, superior GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,327終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% for the NY-20 House seat due to longtime incumbent Paul Tonko's strong reelection bid in a D+8 district rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Tonko captured 61% of the vote in 2024 against a Republican challenger, building on consistent double-digit margins amid the district's reliable Democratic performance in presidential and midterm cycles. No polls are available yet, but Tonko's early fundraising and lack of retirement signals reinforce his dominance. Republican Ralph Ambrosio announced his candidacy in January, yet poses minimal threat per historical base rates in safe seats. Primaries on June 23 could influence nominees ahead of the November 3 general election, though odds could shift via Tonko scandal, unexpected retirement, superior GOP recruitment, or national midterm wave dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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