Market icon
選挙·11月4日選挙

VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者

Market icon
選挙·11月4日選挙

VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

民主党

$0 Vol.

92%

共和党

$0 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% for Vermont's at-large House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean—uninterrupted since Republicans last won in 1988—and incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's commanding path to a third term after her 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points. No major developments have shifted sentiment in recent weeks, with primaries scheduled for August 11, 2026, and the general election on November 3; early cycle dynamics and historical base rates underpin the lopsided pricing. Realistic challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican recruit, Balint facing a credible primary opponent, or a national Republican midterm wave, though Vermont's partisan structure poses significant barriers.

Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% for Vermont's at-large House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean—uninterrupted since Republicans last won in 1988—and incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's commanding path to a third term after her 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points. No major developments have shifted sentiment in recent weeks, with primaries scheduled for August 11, 2026, and the general election on November 3; early cycle dynamics and historical base rates underpin the lopsided pricing. Realistic challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican recruit, Balint facing a credible primary opponent, or a national Republican midterm wave, though Vermont's partisan structure poses significant barriers.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% for Vermont's at-large House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean—uninterrupted since Republicans last won in 1988—and incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's commanding path to a third term after her 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points. No major developments have shifted sentiment in recent weeks, with primaries scheduled for August 11, 2026, and the general election on November 3; early cycle dynamics and historical base rates underpin the lopsided pricing. Realistic challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican recruit, Balint facing a credible primary opponent, or a national Republican midterm wave, though Vermont's partisan structure poses significant barriers.

Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% for Vermont's at-large House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic lean—uninterrupted since Republicans last won in 1988—and incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's commanding path to a third term after her 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points. No major developments have shifted sentiment in recent weeks, with primaries scheduled for August 11, 2026, and the general election on November 3; early cycle dynamics and historical base rates underpin the lopsided pricing. Realistic challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican recruit, Balint facing a credible primary opponent, or a national Republican midterm wave, though Vermont's partisan structure poses significant barriers.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「民主党」で92%、次いで「共和党」が8%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、92¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に92%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jan 28, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「民主党」で92%であり、市場がこの結果に92%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「共和党」で8%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「VT - ALハウス選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。