Incumbent Republican Gregory Murphy holds a commanding position in North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+10 partisan voter index, where Donald Trump would carry by 14 points under current alignments. The March 3 primaries confirmed the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr., who prevailed in a low-turnout contest but trails significantly in fundraising—Murphy with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Smith's $19,700 as of early 2026. Murphy's history of double-digit victories, including 77% in 2024, combined with the district's rural conservative lean post-2025 redistricting, drives trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 ballot. No recent polls exist, but absent major scandals or shifts, structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
85%
民主党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,056 Vol.
85%
民主党
$2,505 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Gregory Murphy holds a commanding position in North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+10 partisan voter index, where Donald Trump would carry by 14 points under current alignments. The March 3 primaries confirmed the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr., who prevailed in a low-turnout contest but trails significantly in fundraising—Murphy with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Smith's $19,700 as of early 2026. Murphy's history of double-digit victories, including 77% in 2024, combined with the district's rural conservative lean post-2025 redistricting, drives trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 ballot. No recent polls exist, but absent major scandals or shifts, structural advantages favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$8,561終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Gregory Murphy holds a commanding position in North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+10 partisan voter index, where Donald Trump would carry by 14 points under current alignments. The March 3 primaries confirmed the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr., who prevailed in a low-turnout contest but trails significantly in fundraising—Murphy with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Smith's $19,700 as of early 2026. Murphy's history of double-digit victories, including 77% in 2024, combined with the district's rural conservative lean post-2025 redistricting, drives trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 ballot. No recent polls exist, but absent major scandals or shifts, structural advantages favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,561終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gregory Murphy holds a commanding position in North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+10 partisan voter index, where Donald Trump would carry by 14 points under current alignments. The March 3 primaries confirmed the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr., who prevailed in a low-turnout contest but trails significantly in fundraising—Murphy with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Smith's $19,700 as of early 2026. Murphy's history of double-digit victories, including 77% in 2024, combined with the district's rural conservative lean post-2025 redistricting, drives trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 ballot. No recent polls exist, but absent major scandals or shifts, structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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