Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson maintains a commanding lead in Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold with a 60% Black voting-age population and D+19 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 91.5% for the Democratic Party. No major developments have shifted the race in the past 30 days since Thompson cruised through an unopposed March primary, while Republican Andrew Joens won a low-turnout GOP primary amid weak fundraising. Polling averages project Thompson's victory margin above 30 points ahead of the November 5 general election, with early voting now underway. Scenarios like a late scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP turnout surge in this safe seat could challenge the odds, though historical precedents favor the incumbent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
92%
共和党
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson maintains a commanding lead in Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold with a 60% Black voting-age population and D+19 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 91.5% for the Democratic Party. No major developments have shifted the race in the past 30 days since Thompson cruised through an unopposed March primary, while Republican Andrew Joens won a low-turnout GOP primary amid weak fundraising. Polling averages project Thompson's victory margin above 30 points ahead of the November 5 general election, with early voting now underway. Scenarios like a late scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP turnout surge in this safe seat could challenge the odds, though historical precedents favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson maintains a commanding lead in Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold with a 60% Black voting-age population and D+19 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 91.5% for the Democratic Party. No major developments have shifted the race in the past 30 days since Thompson cruised through an unopposed March primary, while Republican Andrew Joens won a low-turnout GOP primary amid weak fundraising. Polling averages project Thompson's victory margin above 30 points ahead of the November 5 general election, with early voting now underway. Scenarios like a late scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP turnout surge in this safe seat could challenge the odds, though historical precedents favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson maintains a commanding lead in Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold with a 60% Black voting-age population and D+19 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 91.5% for the Democratic Party. No major developments have shifted the race in the past 30 days since Thompson cruised through an unopposed March primary, while Republican Andrew Joens won a low-turnout GOP primary amid weak fundraising. Polling averages project Thompson's victory margin above 30 points ahead of the November 5 general election, with early voting now underway. Scenarios like a late scandal, health issue, or unprecedented GOP turnout surge in this safe seat could challenge the odds, though historical precedents favor the incumbent.
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