Incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan holds a commanding lead in Florida's 16th Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, driving trader consensus to price GOP victory at 81%. Recent polls, including a late October survey showing Buchanan ahead by over 20 points against Democrat Josh Welle, reinforce this positioning amid strong early voting turnout favoring Republicans in the Sarasota area. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the final week before Election Day on November 5, though national GOP momentum in swing states bolsters confidence. Democrats' path hinges on unexpected surges in independent turnout, but historical base rates for safe districts favor the incumbent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
81%
民主党
18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
81%
民主党
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan holds a commanding lead in Florida's 16th Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, driving trader consensus to price GOP victory at 81%. Recent polls, including a late October survey showing Buchanan ahead by over 20 points against Democrat Josh Welle, reinforce this positioning amid strong early voting turnout favoring Republicans in the Sarasota area. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the final week before Election Day on November 5, though national GOP momentum in swing states bolsters confidence. Democrats' path hinges on unexpected surges in independent turnout, but historical base rates for safe districts favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan holds a commanding lead in Florida's 16th Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, driving trader consensus to price GOP victory at 81%. Recent polls, including a late October survey showing Buchanan ahead by over 20 points against Democrat Josh Welle, reinforce this positioning amid strong early voting turnout favoring Republicans in the Sarasota area. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the final week before Election Day on November 5, though national GOP momentum in swing states bolsters confidence. Democrats' path hinges on unexpected surges in independent turnout, but historical base rates for safe districts favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan holds a commanding lead in Florida's 16th Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, driving trader consensus to price GOP victory at 81%. Recent polls, including a late October survey showing Buchanan ahead by over 20 points against Democrat Josh Welle, reinforce this positioning amid strong early voting turnout favoring Republicans in the Sarasota area. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the final week before Election Day on November 5, though national GOP momentum in swing states bolsters confidence. Democrats' path hinges on unexpected surges in independent turnout, but historical base rates for safe districts favor the incumbent.
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