Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a structural advantage in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, rated R+6 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index after carrying it by double digits in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this edge, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson 52-42. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in February amid voter concerns over costs and affordability, yet early fundraising and surveys have not overcome the district’s partisan baseline. Primaries on August 11 and the November 3 general election remain key upcoming events that could shift probabilities before resolution. Trader consensus at 60.5% for a Republican outcome aligns with these fundamentals while leaving room for national midterm dynamics to influence the race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
61%
民主党
37%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,041 Vol.
61%
民主党
$3,590 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a structural advantage in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, rated R+6 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index after carrying it by double digits in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this edge, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson 52-42. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in February amid voter concerns over costs and affordability, yet early fundraising and surveys have not overcome the district’s partisan baseline. Primaries on August 11 and the November 3 general election remain key upcoming events that could shift probabilities before resolution. Trader consensus at 60.5% for a Republican outcome aligns with these fundamentals while leaving room for national midterm dynamics to influence the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$6,631終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a structural advantage in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, rated R+6 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index after carrying it by double digits in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this edge, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson 52-42. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in February amid voter concerns over costs and affordability, yet early fundraising and surveys have not overcome the district’s partisan baseline. Primaries on August 11 and the November 3 general election remain key upcoming events that could shift probabilities before resolution. Trader consensus at 60.5% for a Republican outcome aligns with these fundamentals while leaving room for national midterm dynamics to influence the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,631終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a structural advantage in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, rated R+6 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index after carrying it by double digits in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this edge, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad leading Democratic challenger Jake Johnson 52-42. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in February amid voter concerns over costs and affordability, yet early fundraising and surveys have not overcome the district’s partisan baseline. Primaries on August 11 and the November 3 general election remain key upcoming events that could shift probabilities before resolution. Trader consensus at 60.5% for a Republican outcome aligns with these fundamentals while leaving room for national midterm dynamics to influence the race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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