Republican incumbent Brad Finstad maintains a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, which carries an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and delivered him a 17-point victory in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this positioning, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad ahead of Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by ten points. The DCCC added the seat to its target list in February after an earlier poll narrowed the gap, yet the district’s partisan baseline and Finstad’s fundraising lead have kept trader consensus tilted toward a Republican hold. Primaries scheduled for August 11 and the November 3 general election remain the next major catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
61%
民主党
39%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,041 Vol.
61%
民主党
$4,073 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Brad Finstad maintains a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, which carries an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and delivered him a 17-point victory in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this positioning, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad ahead of Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by ten points. The DCCC added the seat to its target list in February after an earlier poll narrowed the gap, yet the district’s partisan baseline and Finstad’s fundraising lead have kept trader consensus tilted toward a Republican hold. Primaries scheduled for August 11 and the November 3 general election remain the next major catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$7,115終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Brad Finstad maintains a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, which carries an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and delivered him a 17-point victory in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this positioning, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad ahead of Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by ten points. The DCCC added the seat to its target list in February after an earlier poll narrowed the gap, yet the district’s partisan baseline and Finstad’s fundraising lead have kept trader consensus tilted toward a Republican hold. Primaries scheduled for August 11 and the November 3 general election remain the next major catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,115終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Brad Finstad maintains a structural edge in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, which carries an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index and delivered him a 17-point victory in 2024. Recent polling reinforces this positioning, with a March 2026 survey showing Finstad ahead of Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by ten points. The DCCC added the seat to its target list in February after an earlier poll narrowed the gap, yet the district’s partisan baseline and Finstad’s fundraising lead have kept trader consensus tilted toward a Republican hold. Primaries scheduled for August 11 and the November 3 general election remain the next major catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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