Trader consensus gives Democrats an 85% implied probability of winning California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the East San Diego and Temecula Valley district leftward—now rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections, and Lean Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Republican incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement announcement removed his proven electoral edge in the open race, spurring a crowded nine-candidate Democratic primary field led in fundraising by Brandon Riker and Ammar Campa-Najjar, against Jim Desmond, Issa's endorsed GOP successor. The June 2 top-two primary will select general election contenders amid the district's 2024 Kamala Harris win despite its R+7 partisan lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
85%
共和党
12%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$4,116 Vol.
85%
共和党
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats an 85% implied probability of winning California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the East San Diego and Temecula Valley district leftward—now rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections, and Lean Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Republican incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement announcement removed his proven electoral edge in the open race, spurring a crowded nine-candidate Democratic primary field led in fundraising by Brandon Riker and Ammar Campa-Najjar, against Jim Desmond, Issa's endorsed GOP successor. The June 2 top-two primary will select general election contenders amid the district's 2024 Kamala Harris win despite its R+7 partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$4,116終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Democrats an 85% implied probability of winning California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the East San Diego and Temecula Valley district leftward—now rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections, and Lean Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Republican incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement announcement removed his proven electoral edge in the open race, spurring a crowded nine-candidate Democratic primary field led in fundraising by Brandon Riker and Ammar Campa-Najjar, against Jim Desmond, Issa's endorsed GOP successor. The June 2 top-two primary will select general election contenders amid the district's 2024 Kamala Harris win despite its R+7 partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,116終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Democrats an 85% implied probability of winning California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the East San Diego and Temecula Valley district leftward—now rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report, Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections, and Lean Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Republican incumbent Darrell Issa's March 6 retirement announcement removed his proven electoral edge in the open race, spurring a crowded nine-candidate Democratic primary field led in fundraising by Brandon Riker and Ammar Campa-Najjar, against Jim Desmond, Issa's endorsed GOP successor. The June 2 top-two primary will select general election contenders amid the district's 2024 Kamala Harris win despite its R+7 partisan lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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