Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
85%
共和党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,754 Vol.
85%
共和党
$4,139 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$9,893終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,893終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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