Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 59% to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Republican-leaning PVI (R+12) and incumbent Celeste Maloy's advantages following her June primary victory over challenger Colby Jenkins and 2023 special election win by 13 points. Democrats trail at 16%, hampered by nominee Frank Siciliano's weaker fundraising—Maloy holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand versus Siciliano's under $150,000 per late September FEC reports—and a lopsided GOP registration edge (48% Republican vs. 12% Democratic). No recent polls exist, but historical turnout favors Republicans in this Salt Lake City-area battleground; early voting starts October 22 ahead of the November 5 general election, where national House trends could tip the balance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
16%
共和党
59%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
16%
共和党
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 59% to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Republican-leaning PVI (R+12) and incumbent Celeste Maloy's advantages following her June primary victory over challenger Colby Jenkins and 2023 special election win by 13 points. Democrats trail at 16%, hampered by nominee Frank Siciliano's weaker fundraising—Maloy holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand versus Siciliano's under $150,000 per late September FEC reports—and a lopsided GOP registration edge (48% Republican vs. 12% Democratic). No recent polls exist, but historical turnout favors Republicans in this Salt Lake City-area battleground; early voting starts October 22 ahead of the November 5 general election, where national House trends could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 59% to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Republican-leaning PVI (R+12) and incumbent Celeste Maloy's advantages following her June primary victory over challenger Colby Jenkins and 2023 special election win by 13 points. Democrats trail at 16%, hampered by nominee Frank Siciliano's weaker fundraising—Maloy holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand versus Siciliano's under $150,000 per late September FEC reports—and a lopsided GOP registration edge (48% Republican vs. 12% Democratic). No recent polls exist, but historical turnout favors Republicans in this Salt Lake City-area battleground; early voting starts October 22 ahead of the November 5 general election, where national House trends could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 59% to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Republican-leaning PVI (R+12) and incumbent Celeste Maloy's advantages following her June primary victory over challenger Colby Jenkins and 2023 special election win by 13 points. Democrats trail at 16%, hampered by nominee Frank Siciliano's weaker fundraising—Maloy holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand versus Siciliano's under $150,000 per late September FEC reports—and a lopsided GOP registration edge (48% Republican vs. 12% Democratic). No recent polls exist, but historical turnout favors Republicans in this Salt Lake City-area battleground; early voting starts October 22 ahead of the November 5 general election, where national House trends could tip the balance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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