Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 56% to retain Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House seat over Democrats at 44.5%, driven by incumbent Zach Nunn's narrow leads in recent polls like the October Emerson survey (48%-46%) and The Hill/DDHQ average. Nunn's incumbency advantage and the district's slight Republican lean provide a base rate edge in this battleground encompassing Des Moines suburbs and Iowa City, despite Democrat Christina Bohannan's fundraising superiority and strong 2022 performance. An October 24 debate sharpened contrasts on economy, immigration, and abortion without decisive shifts, while early voting turnout and national GOP momentum toward House control sustain the close positioning ahead of November 5.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
56%
民主党
45%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
56%
民主党
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 56% to retain Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House seat over Democrats at 44.5%, driven by incumbent Zach Nunn's narrow leads in recent polls like the October Emerson survey (48%-46%) and The Hill/DDHQ average. Nunn's incumbency advantage and the district's slight Republican lean provide a base rate edge in this battleground encompassing Des Moines suburbs and Iowa City, despite Democrat Christina Bohannan's fundraising superiority and strong 2022 performance. An October 24 debate sharpened contrasts on economy, immigration, and abortion without decisive shifts, while early voting turnout and national GOP momentum toward House control sustain the close positioning ahead of November 5.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 56% to retain Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House seat over Democrats at 44.5%, driven by incumbent Zach Nunn's narrow leads in recent polls like the October Emerson survey (48%-46%) and The Hill/DDHQ average. Nunn's incumbency advantage and the district's slight Republican lean provide a base rate edge in this battleground encompassing Des Moines suburbs and Iowa City, despite Democrat Christina Bohannan's fundraising superiority and strong 2022 performance. An October 24 debate sharpened contrasts on economy, immigration, and abortion without decisive shifts, while early voting turnout and national GOP momentum toward House control sustain the close positioning ahead of November 5.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Republican Party at 56% to retain Iowa's 2nd Congressional District House seat over Democrats at 44.5%, driven by incumbent Zach Nunn's narrow leads in recent polls like the October Emerson survey (48%-46%) and The Hill/DDHQ average. Nunn's incumbency advantage and the district's slight Republican lean provide a base rate edge in this battleground encompassing Des Moines suburbs and Iowa City, despite Democrat Christina Bohannan's fundraising superiority and strong 2022 performance. An October 24 debate sharpened contrasts on economy, immigration, and abortion without decisive shifts, while early voting turnout and national GOP momentum toward House control sustain the close positioning ahead of November 5.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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