Court-mandated redistricting in 2023 transformed Alabama's 2nd Congressional District into a Black-majority seat with a Democratic lean, driving trader consensus heavily toward the Democratic Party nominee Shomari Figures at 90.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including a late October JMC Analytics survey showing Figures ahead 51%-43%, reinforce this edge amid his fundraising dominance and strong early voting turnout in key Democratic strongholds. The Republican nominee, Caroleene Dobson, trails in polling averages and resources despite national GOP tailwinds. With the November 5 general election approaching, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, unexpected Republican turnout surge, or faithless absentee ballot issues could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
91%
共和党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
91%
共和党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-mandated redistricting in 2023 transformed Alabama's 2nd Congressional District into a Black-majority seat with a Democratic lean, driving trader consensus heavily toward the Democratic Party nominee Shomari Figures at 90.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including a late October JMC Analytics survey showing Figures ahead 51%-43%, reinforce this edge amid his fundraising dominance and strong early voting turnout in key Democratic strongholds. The Republican nominee, Caroleene Dobson, trails in polling averages and resources despite national GOP tailwinds. With the November 5 general election approaching, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, unexpected Republican turnout surge, or faithless absentee ballot issues could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-mandated redistricting in 2023 transformed Alabama's 2nd Congressional District into a Black-majority seat with a Democratic lean, driving trader consensus heavily toward the Democratic Party nominee Shomari Figures at 90.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including a late October JMC Analytics survey showing Figures ahead 51%-43%, reinforce this edge amid his fundraising dominance and strong early voting turnout in key Democratic strongholds. The Republican nominee, Caroleene Dobson, trails in polling averages and resources despite national GOP tailwinds. With the November 5 general election approaching, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, unexpected Republican turnout surge, or faithless absentee ballot issues could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Court-mandated redistricting in 2023 transformed Alabama's 2nd Congressional District into a Black-majority seat with a Democratic lean, driving trader consensus heavily toward the Democratic Party nominee Shomari Figures at 90.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including a late October JMC Analytics survey showing Figures ahead 51%-43%, reinforce this edge amid his fundraising dominance and strong early voting turnout in key Democratic strongholds. The Republican nominee, Caroleene Dobson, trails in polling averages and resources despite national GOP tailwinds. With the November 5 general election approaching, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, unexpected Republican turnout surge, or faithless absentee ballot issues could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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