Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman's commanding fundraising lead—over $640,000 raised—and the district's heavy Democratic lean, where Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024, anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic House winner in CA-30. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical dominance by figures like Adam Schiff and weak primary challengers, including underfunded Republicans. With no major developments in the past 30 days beyond early voting starting May 4, the market pricing embodies the wisdom of crowds on this safe seat ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a scandal, health issue, or unforeseen primary surprise elevating a strong Republican contender.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,697 Vol.
$10,697 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
8%
$10,697 Vol.
$10,697 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,969 Vol.
93%
共和党
$4,728 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman's commanding fundraising lead—over $640,000 raised—and the district's heavy Democratic lean, where Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024, anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic House winner in CA-30. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical dominance by figures like Adam Schiff and weak primary challengers, including underfunded Republicans. With no major developments in the past 30 days beyond early voting starting May 4, the market pricing embodies the wisdom of crowds on this safe seat ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a scandal, health issue, or unforeseen primary surprise elevating a strong Republican contender.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$10,697終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman's commanding fundraising lead—over $640,000 raised—and the district's heavy Democratic lean, where Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024, anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic House winner in CA-30. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical dominance by figures like Adam Schiff and weak primary challengers, including underfunded Republicans. With no major developments in the past 30 days beyond early voting starting May 4, the market pricing embodies the wisdom of crowds on this safe seat ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a scandal, health issue, or unforeseen primary surprise elevating a strong Republican contender.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$10,697終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman's commanding fundraising lead—over $640,000 raised—and the district's heavy Democratic lean, where Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024, anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic House winner in CA-30. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical dominance by figures like Adam Schiff and weak primary challengers, including underfunded Republicans. With no major developments in the past 30 days beyond early voting starting May 4, the market pricing embodies the wisdom of crowds on this safe seat ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Upsets would require a scandal, health issue, or unforeseen primary surprise elevating a strong Republican contender.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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