Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win California's 25th Congressional District House race, reflecting his consistent victories—56.3% in 2024 and 57.4% in 2022—in a D+3 Cook PVI district tilted further Democratic by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, Ruiz holds $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus leading Republican Joe Males' $52,000, with other GOP contenders Ceci Andrade Truman and Ronald Huffman trailing in resources. Early voting began May 4, but no recent polling or scandals have altered the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, underscoring structural barriers to a Republican upset despite the 8.5% GOP pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
88%
共和党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,454 Vol.
88%
共和党
$615 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win California's 25th Congressional District House race, reflecting his consistent victories—56.3% in 2024 and 57.4% in 2022—in a D+3 Cook PVI district tilted further Democratic by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, Ruiz holds $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus leading Republican Joe Males' $52,000, with other GOP contenders Ceci Andrade Truman and Ronald Huffman trailing in resources. Early voting began May 4, but no recent polling or scandals have altered the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, underscoring structural barriers to a Republican upset despite the 8.5% GOP pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$3,069終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win California's 25th Congressional District House race, reflecting his consistent victories—56.3% in 2024 and 57.4% in 2022—in a D+3 Cook PVI district tilted further Democratic by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, Ruiz holds $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus leading Republican Joe Males' $52,000, with other GOP contenders Ceci Andrade Truman and Ronald Huffman trailing in resources. Early voting began May 4, but no recent polling or scandals have altered the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, underscoring structural barriers to a Republican upset despite the 8.5% GOP pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,069終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz leads trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win California's 25th Congressional District House race, reflecting his consistent victories—56.3% in 2024 and 57.4% in 2022—in a D+3 Cook PVI district tilted further Democratic by mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50. Ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, Ruiz holds $2.4 million cash-on-hand versus leading Republican Joe Males' $52,000, with other GOP contenders Ceci Andrade Truman and Ronald Huffman trailing in resources. Early voting began May 4, but no recent polling or scandals have altered the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, underscoring structural barriers to a Republican upset despite the 8.5% GOP pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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