Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+9 partisan lean and history of lopsided results, including incumbent Julia Brownley's 56% victory in 2024. Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but a crowded Democratic primary field—featuring state Sen. Jacqui Irwin (her endorsed successor), physician Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and others—faces a fragmented Republican lineup headlined by prior loser Michael Koslow. Rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and others, the top-two primary on June 2 likely advances at least one Democrat to November, barring a GOP consolidation, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$18,129 Vol.
$18,129 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$18,129 Vol.
$18,129 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$9,126 Vol.
94%
共和党
$9,003 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+9 partisan lean and history of lopsided results, including incumbent Julia Brownley's 56% victory in 2024. Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but a crowded Democratic primary field—featuring state Sen. Jacqui Irwin (her endorsed successor), physician Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and others—faces a fragmented Republican lineup headlined by prior loser Michael Koslow. Rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and others, the top-two primary on June 2 likely advances at least one Democrat to November, barring a GOP consolidation, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$18,129終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+9 partisan lean and history of lopsided results, including incumbent Julia Brownley's 56% victory in 2024. Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but a crowded Democratic primary field—featuring state Sen. Jacqui Irwin (her endorsed successor), physician Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and others—faces a fragmented Republican lineup headlined by prior loser Michael Koslow. Rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and others, the top-two primary on June 2 likely advances at least one Democrat to November, barring a GOP consolidation, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,129終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+9 partisan lean and history of lopsided results, including incumbent Julia Brownley's 56% victory in 2024. Brownley's January 2026 retirement opened the race, but a crowded Democratic primary field—featuring state Sen. Jacqui Irwin (her endorsed successor), physician Sonia Devgan-Kacker, and others—faces a fragmented Republican lineup headlined by prior loser Michael Koslow. Rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and others, the top-two primary on June 2 likely advances at least one Democrat to November, barring a GOP consolidation, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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