Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arizona 7th congressional district race. The district's D+13 partisan voting index and majority-Hispanic demographics along the Arizona border have produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Grijalva faces Republican nominee Daniel Butierez in a July 2026 primary cycle that is not expected to alter the general election dynamics. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Democratic reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of shifting the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national political wave, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or major scandal remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,090 Vol.
92%
共和党
$6,305 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arizona 7th congressional district race. The district's D+13 partisan voting index and majority-Hispanic demographics along the Arizona border have produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Grijalva faces Republican nominee Daniel Butierez in a July 2026 primary cycle that is not expected to alter the general election dynamics. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Democratic reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of shifting the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national political wave, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or major scandal remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$9,395終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arizona 7th congressional district race. The district's D+13 partisan voting index and majority-Hispanic demographics along the Arizona border have produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Grijalva faces Republican nominee Daniel Butierez in a July 2026 primary cycle that is not expected to alter the general election dynamics. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Democratic reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of shifting the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national political wave, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or major scandal remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,395終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election with nearly 69 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arizona 7th congressional district race. The district's D+13 partisan voting index and majority-Hispanic demographics along the Arizona border have produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Grijalva faces Republican nominee Daniel Butierez in a July 2026 primary cycle that is not expected to alter the general election dynamics. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Democratic reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of shifting the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national political wave, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or major scandal remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問