Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th Congressional District House race, reflecting trader consensus implied by 91.5% odds, driven by the district's D+13 Partisan Voter Index and her 68.9% victory in the 2025 special election over the same Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr. Recent filings confirming both candidates unopposed in the July 21 primaries, coupled with Grijalva's superior fundraising—$375,000 cash on hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025—solidify her path in this solidly Democratic Tucson-Yuma seat rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Realistic challenges include a late GOP primary entrant, personal scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout, though structural advantages make an upset improbable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,715 Vol.
92%
共和党
$3,173 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th Congressional District House race, reflecting trader consensus implied by 91.5% odds, driven by the district's D+13 Partisan Voter Index and her 68.9% victory in the 2025 special election over the same Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr. Recent filings confirming both candidates unopposed in the July 21 primaries, coupled with Grijalva's superior fundraising—$375,000 cash on hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025—solidify her path in this solidly Democratic Tucson-Yuma seat rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Realistic challenges include a late GOP primary entrant, personal scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout, though structural advantages make an upset improbable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$5,888終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th Congressional District House race, reflecting trader consensus implied by 91.5% odds, driven by the district's D+13 Partisan Voter Index and her 68.9% victory in the 2025 special election over the same Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr. Recent filings confirming both candidates unopposed in the July 21 primaries, coupled with Grijalva's superior fundraising—$375,000 cash on hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025—solidify her path in this solidly Democratic Tucson-Yuma seat rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Realistic challenges include a late GOP primary entrant, personal scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout, though structural advantages make an upset improbable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,888終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adelita Grijalva holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th Congressional District House race, reflecting trader consensus implied by 91.5% odds, driven by the district's D+13 Partisan Voter Index and her 68.9% victory in the 2025 special election over the same Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr. Recent filings confirming both candidates unopposed in the July 21 primaries, coupled with Grijalva's superior fundraising—$375,000 cash on hand versus Butierez's $30,000 as of late 2025—solidify her path in this solidly Democratic Tucson-Yuma seat rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Realistic challenges include a late GOP primary entrant, personal scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Republican turnout, though structural advantages make an upset improbable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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