Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's strong position in the safely Republican IN-06 district, rated R+16 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee in the November 2026 general election. Shreve, who won decisively in 2024 after Greg Pence's retirement, filed for reelection in January 2026 and faces a primary challenger in Sarah Janisse Brown ahead of the May 5 primaries, but historical incumbency advantages and district demographics favor him. Democrats feature a crowded primary with candidates including Kory Amyx, David Boyd, and Cynthia Wirth, lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to shift odds include a Shreve scandal, his primary loss to a weaker nominee, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in suburban battleground areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$5,716 Vol.
91%
民主党
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's strong position in the safely Republican IN-06 district, rated R+16 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee in the November 2026 general election. Shreve, who won decisively in 2024 after Greg Pence's retirement, filed for reelection in January 2026 and faces a primary challenger in Sarah Janisse Brown ahead of the May 5 primaries, but historical incumbency advantages and district demographics favor him. Democrats feature a crowded primary with candidates including Kory Amyx, David Boyd, and Cynthia Wirth, lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to shift odds include a Shreve scandal, his primary loss to a weaker nominee, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in suburban battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$5,716終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's strong position in the safely Republican IN-06 district, rated R+16 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee in the November 2026 general election. Shreve, who won decisively in 2024 after Greg Pence's retirement, filed for reelection in January 2026 and faces a primary challenger in Sarah Janisse Brown ahead of the May 5 primaries, but historical incumbency advantages and district demographics favor him. Democrats feature a crowded primary with candidates including Kory Amyx, David Boyd, and Cynthia Wirth, lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to shift odds include a Shreve scandal, his primary loss to a weaker nominee, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in suburban battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,716終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jefferson Shreve's strong position in the safely Republican IN-06 district, rated R+16 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, drives trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee in the November 2026 general election. Shreve, who won decisively in 2024 after Greg Pence's retirement, filed for reelection in January 2026 and faces a primary challenger in Sarah Janisse Brown ahead of the May 5 primaries, but historical incumbency advantages and district demographics favor him. Democrats feature a crowded primary with candidates including Kory Amyx, David Boyd, and Cynthia Wirth, lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to shift odds include a Shreve scandal, his primary loss to a weaker nominee, or a national Democratic wave boosting turnout in suburban battleground areas.
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