Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting its D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats, including Eric Swalwell's 68% in 2024. Incumbent Swalwell's bid for governor created an open race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, backed by California Democratic Party endorsement—against two Republicans with negligible fundraising in the June 2 top-two primary. Bay Area demographics and past top-two outcomes, where both slots went Democratic, underpin this positioning. A GOP general election advance would require primary overperformance amid weak challengers, alongside a national Republican wave or Democratic scandal, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's entrenched lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$11,840 Vol.
$11,840 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$11,840 Vol.
$11,840 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,287 Vol.
93%
共和党
$9,552 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting its D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats, including Eric Swalwell's 68% in 2024. Incumbent Swalwell's bid for governor created an open race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, backed by California Democratic Party endorsement—against two Republicans with negligible fundraising in the June 2 top-two primary. Bay Area demographics and past top-two outcomes, where both slots went Democratic, underpin this positioning. A GOP general election advance would require primary overperformance amid weak challengers, alongside a national Republican wave or Democratic scandal, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's entrenched lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$11,840終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting its D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats, including Eric Swalwell's 68% in 2024. Incumbent Swalwell's bid for governor created an open race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, backed by California Democratic Party endorsement—against two Republicans with negligible fundraising in the June 2 top-two primary. Bay Area demographics and past top-two outcomes, where both slots went Democratic, underpin this positioning. A GOP general election advance would require primary overperformance amid weak challengers, alongside a national Republican wave or Democratic scandal, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's entrenched lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,840終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93% to win California's 14th Congressional District House seat, reflecting its D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats, including Eric Swalwell's 68% in 2024. Incumbent Swalwell's bid for governor created an open race, drawing a crowded field of five Democrats—including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, backed by California Democratic Party endorsement—against two Republicans with negligible fundraising in the June 2 top-two primary. Bay Area demographics and past top-two outcomes, where both slots went Democratic, underpin this positioning. A GOP general election advance would require primary overperformance amid weak challengers, alongside a national Republican wave or Democratic scandal, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's entrenched lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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