The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+25 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Nydia Velázquez’s retirement has created an open-seat primary on June 23 featuring several progressive candidates, yet no Republican has emerged as a credible general-election threat ahead of the November 3 contest. Historical precedent in similarly safe urban districts shows minimal crossover potential absent extraordinary circumstances. A major scandal affecting the eventual Democratic nominee, an unusually large turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or a national political realignment could narrow the gap, though current structural factors and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$22,285 Vol.
$22,285 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$22,285 Vol.
$22,285 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,501 Vol.
94%
共和党
$10,784 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+25 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Nydia Velázquez’s retirement has created an open-seat primary on June 23 featuring several progressive candidates, yet no Republican has emerged as a credible general-election threat ahead of the November 3 contest. Historical precedent in similarly safe urban districts shows minimal crossover potential absent extraordinary circumstances. A major scandal affecting the eventual Democratic nominee, an unusually large turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or a national political realignment could narrow the gap, though current structural factors and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
音量
$22,285終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+25 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Nydia Velázquez’s retirement has created an open-seat primary on June 23 featuring several progressive candidates, yet no Republican has emerged as a credible general-election threat ahead of the November 3 contest. Historical precedent in similarly safe urban districts shows minimal crossover potential absent extraordinary circumstances. A major scandal affecting the eventual Democratic nominee, an unusually large turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or a national political realignment could narrow the gap, though current structural factors and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,285終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+25 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Nydia Velázquez’s retirement has created an open-seat primary on June 23 featuring several progressive candidates, yet no Republican has emerged as a credible general-election threat ahead of the November 3 contest. Historical precedent in similarly safe urban districts shows minimal crossover potential absent extraordinary circumstances. A major scandal affecting the eventual Democratic nominee, an unusually large turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or a national political realignment could narrow the gap, though current structural factors and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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