Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration advantage, combined with Carbajal's consistent reelection record and endorsements from party organizations, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican challenger Bob Smith and other primary candidates show limited fundraising and polling traction. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger opponent, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or broader national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,816 Vol.
$17,816 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,816 Vol.
$17,816 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$9,935 Vol.
94%
共和党
$7,881 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration advantage, combined with Carbajal's consistent reelection record and endorsements from party organizations, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican challenger Bob Smith and other primary candidates show limited fundraising and polling traction. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger opponent, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or broader national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$17,816終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration advantage, combined with Carbajal's consistent reelection record and endorsements from party organizations, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican challenger Bob Smith and other primary candidates show limited fundraising and polling traction. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger opponent, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or broader national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,816終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic voter registration advantage, combined with Carbajal's consistent reelection record and endorsements from party organizations, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Republican challenger Bob Smith and other primary candidates show limited fundraising and polling traction. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger opponent, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or broader national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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