Incumbent Democrat Jan Schakowsky commands trader consensus at 93.5% in the Illinois 9th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, her 25-year tenure, and a partisan voter index favoring Democrats by around 25 points amid Chicago North Shore demographics. Recent fundraising reports show Schakowsky vastly outpacing Republican challenger Jonathan Harms, with no competitive polling emerging as early voting began statewide on September 26. This lopsided positioning aligns with historical base rates for safe House seats, where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, health event affecting Schakowsky (age 80), or anomalous low Democratic turnout on November 5, though none appear on the horizon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$8,382 Vol.
94%
共和党
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jan Schakowsky commands trader consensus at 93.5% in the Illinois 9th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, her 25-year tenure, and a partisan voter index favoring Democrats by around 25 points amid Chicago North Shore demographics. Recent fundraising reports show Schakowsky vastly outpacing Republican challenger Jonathan Harms, with no competitive polling emerging as early voting began statewide on September 26. This lopsided positioning aligns with historical base rates for safe House seats, where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, health event affecting Schakowsky (age 80), or anomalous low Democratic turnout on November 5, though none appear on the horizon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$8,382終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jan Schakowsky commands trader consensus at 93.5% in the Illinois 9th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, her 25-year tenure, and a partisan voter index favoring Democrats by around 25 points amid Chicago North Shore demographics. Recent fundraising reports show Schakowsky vastly outpacing Republican challenger Jonathan Harms, with no competitive polling emerging as early voting began statewide on September 26. This lopsided positioning aligns with historical base rates for safe House seats, where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, health event affecting Schakowsky (age 80), or anomalous low Democratic turnout on November 5, though none appear on the horizon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,382終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jan Schakowsky commands trader consensus at 93.5% in the Illinois 9th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, her 25-year tenure, and a partisan voter index favoring Democrats by around 25 points amid Chicago North Shore demographics. Recent fundraising reports show Schakowsky vastly outpacing Republican challenger Jonathan Harms, with no competitive polling emerging as early voting began statewide on September 26. This lopsided positioning aligns with historical base rates for safe House seats, where incumbents win over 95% of the time. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal, health event affecting Schakowsky (age 80), or anomalous low Democratic turnout on November 5, though none appear on the horizon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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