Utah’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following recent redistricting that preserves its R+14 Cook Partisan Voting Index and a 32-point Trump margin from 2024. Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination at the April 2026 state convention with 78.7 percent delegate support and faces no primary opposition, while Democrat Jonny Larsen advanced without a contested primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent GOP voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results where the party has won by wide margins. A late national Democratic wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or major scandal involving Kennedy could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in this district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,038 Vol.
$15,038 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
$15,038 Vol.
$15,038 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$5,489 Vol.
91%
民主党
$9,549 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following recent redistricting that preserves its R+14 Cook Partisan Voting Index and a 32-point Trump margin from 2024. Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination at the April 2026 state convention with 78.7 percent delegate support and faces no primary opposition, while Democrat Jonny Larsen advanced without a contested primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent GOP voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results where the party has won by wide margins. A late national Democratic wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or major scandal involving Kennedy could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$15,038終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following recent redistricting that preserves its R+14 Cook Partisan Voting Index and a 32-point Trump margin from 2024. Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination at the April 2026 state convention with 78.7 percent delegate support and faces no primary opposition, while Democrat Jonny Larsen advanced without a contested primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent GOP voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results where the party has won by wide margins. A late national Democratic wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or major scandal involving Kennedy could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,038終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following recent redistricting that preserves its R+14 Cook Partisan Voting Index and a 32-point Trump margin from 2024. Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination at the April 2026 state convention with 78.7 percent delegate support and faces no primary opposition, while Democrat Jonny Larsen advanced without a contested primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent GOP voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results where the party has won by wide margins. A late national Democratic wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or major scandal involving Kennedy could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in this district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問