Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson, who has represented California's 4th congressional district since 1998, anchors the Democratic advantage in this race through established fundraising networks, high name recognition, and consistent general-election margins above 60 percent in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and partisan voting index that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring Thompson alongside a smaller field of challengers, serves as the nearest procedural checkpoint but is unlikely to alter the broader trajectory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical incumbency retention rates in comparable safe seats, though late-cycle developments such as redistricting adjustments, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or unexpected primary outcomes could introduce modest volatility before the November resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$630 Vol.
92%
共和党
$1,381 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson, who has represented California's 4th congressional district since 1998, anchors the Democratic advantage in this race through established fundraising networks, high name recognition, and consistent general-election margins above 60 percent in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and partisan voting index that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring Thompson alongside a smaller field of challengers, serves as the nearest procedural checkpoint but is unlikely to alter the broader trajectory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical incumbency retention rates in comparable safe seats, though late-cycle developments such as redistricting adjustments, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or unexpected primary outcomes could introduce modest volatility before the November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$2,011終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson, who has represented California's 4th congressional district since 1998, anchors the Democratic advantage in this race through established fundraising networks, high name recognition, and consistent general-election margins above 60 percent in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and partisan voting index that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring Thompson alongside a smaller field of challengers, serves as the nearest procedural checkpoint but is unlikely to alter the broader trajectory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical incumbency retention rates in comparable safe seats, though late-cycle developments such as redistricting adjustments, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or unexpected primary outcomes could introduce modest volatility before the November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,011終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson, who has represented California's 4th congressional district since 1998, anchors the Democratic advantage in this race through established fundraising networks, high name recognition, and consistent general-election margins above 60 percent in prior cycles. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and partisan voting index that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 top-two primary, featuring Thompson alongside a smaller field of challengers, serves as the nearest procedural checkpoint but is unlikely to alter the broader trajectory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical incumbency retention rates in comparable safe seats, though late-cycle developments such as redistricting adjustments, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or unexpected primary outcomes could introduce modest volatility before the November resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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