Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson maintains a commanding position in California's 4th congressional district due to his 28-year tenure, consistent reelection margins exceeding 30 points, and the seat's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 slightly narrowed the partisan lean to around D+8, yet primary fundraising data shows Thompson and Democratic challenger Eric Jones dominating contributions while the Republican field remains fragmented across multiple low-profile candidates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent for a Democratic victory aligns with these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late Republican consolidation, significant national midterm shift, or unexpected primary upset could still narrow the gap before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$630 Vol.
92%
共和党
$1,381 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson maintains a commanding position in California's 4th congressional district due to his 28-year tenure, consistent reelection margins exceeding 30 points, and the seat's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 slightly narrowed the partisan lean to around D+8, yet primary fundraising data shows Thompson and Democratic challenger Eric Jones dominating contributions while the Republican field remains fragmented across multiple low-profile candidates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent for a Democratic victory aligns with these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late Republican consolidation, significant national midterm shift, or unexpected primary upset could still narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$2,011終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson maintains a commanding position in California's 4th congressional district due to his 28-year tenure, consistent reelection margins exceeding 30 points, and the seat's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 slightly narrowed the partisan lean to around D+8, yet primary fundraising data shows Thompson and Democratic challenger Eric Jones dominating contributions while the Republican field remains fragmented across multiple low-profile candidates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent for a Democratic victory aligns with these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late Republican consolidation, significant national midterm shift, or unexpected primary upset could still narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,011終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson maintains a commanding position in California's 4th congressional district due to his 28-year tenure, consistent reelection margins exceeding 30 points, and the seat's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 slightly narrowed the partisan lean to around D+8, yet primary fundraising data shows Thompson and Democratic challenger Eric Jones dominating contributions while the Republican field remains fragmented across multiple low-profile candidates ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent for a Democratic victory aligns with these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late Republican consolidation, significant national midterm shift, or unexpected primary upset could still narrow the gap before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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