Incumbent Democratic Representative Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that leans Democratic and would have supported Kamala Harris by roughly six points in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Costa's consistent primary and general-election performance, established fundraising base, and moderate positioning that aligns with the district's voter registration and turnout patterns. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic challengers alongside two Republican candidates, yet no opponent has demonstrated the resources or name recognition to threaten the incumbent's path to the November 3 general election. This consensus pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as likely Democratic and underscores limited volatility ahead of the filing deadline and primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
88%
共和党
12%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,884 Vol.
88%
共和党
$1,394 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that leans Democratic and would have supported Kamala Harris by roughly six points in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Costa's consistent primary and general-election performance, established fundraising base, and moderate positioning that aligns with the district's voter registration and turnout patterns. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic challengers alongside two Republican candidates, yet no opponent has demonstrated the resources or name recognition to threaten the incumbent's path to the November 3 general election. This consensus pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as likely Democratic and underscores limited volatility ahead of the filing deadline and primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$4,278終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that leans Democratic and would have supported Kamala Harris by roughly six points in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Costa's consistent primary and general-election performance, established fundraising base, and moderate positioning that aligns with the district's voter registration and turnout patterns. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic challengers alongside two Republican candidates, yet no opponent has demonstrated the resources or name recognition to threaten the incumbent's path to the November 3 general election. This consensus pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as likely Democratic and underscores limited volatility ahead of the filing deadline and primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$4,278終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Jim Costa holds a structural edge in California's 21st congressional district, a Central Valley seat that leans Democratic and would have supported Kamala Harris by roughly six points in the prior cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of retaining the seat, reflecting Costa's consistent primary and general-election performance, established fundraising base, and moderate positioning that aligns with the district's voter registration and turnout patterns. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic challengers alongside two Republican candidates, yet no opponent has demonstrated the resources or name recognition to threaten the incumbent's path to the November 3 general election. This consensus pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as likely Democratic and underscores limited volatility ahead of the filing deadline and primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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