With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict sparked by US-Israel military strikes on February 28, traders overwhelmingly price "No" at 100%, reflecting the absence of any verified reports, official US acknowledgments, or Iranian attributions of a major US cyberattack on Tehran during the period. Pre-strike disruptions by US Cyber Command blinded Iranian command-and-control, but subsequent Iranian responses— including hacks on US medical firm Stryker and threats to critical infrastructure—have not prompted reciprocal public US cyber escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus prioritizes open-source evidence over speculation, though classified operations or late attributions could theoretically prompt resolution disputes. Ceasefire negotiations and Iran's prolonged internet blackout add uncertainty to any hidden actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
$357,464 Vol.
$357,464 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$357,464 Vol.
$357,464 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict sparked by US-Israel military strikes on February 28, traders overwhelmingly price "No" at 100%, reflecting the absence of any verified reports, official US acknowledgments, or Iranian attributions of a major US cyberattack on Tehran during the period. Pre-strike disruptions by US Cyber Command blinded Iranian command-and-control, but subsequent Iranian responses— including hacks on US medical firm Stryker and threats to critical infrastructure—have not prompted reciprocal public US cyber escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus prioritizes open-source evidence over speculation, though classified operations or late attributions could theoretically prompt resolution disputes. Ceasefire negotiations and Iran's prolonged internet blackout add uncertainty to any hidden actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$357,464End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict sparked by US-Israel military strikes on February 28, traders overwhelmingly price "No" at 100%, reflecting the absence of any verified reports, official US acknowledgments, or Iranian attributions of a major US cyberattack on Tehran during the period. Pre-strike disruptions by US Cyber Command blinded Iranian command-and-control, but subsequent Iranian responses— including hacks on US medical firm Stryker and threats to critical infrastructure—have not prompted reciprocal public US cyber escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus prioritizes open-source evidence over speculation, though classified operations or late attributions could theoretically prompt resolution disputes. Ceasefire negotiations and Iran's prolonged internet blackout add uncertainty to any hidden actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$357,464End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict sparked by US-Israel military strikes on February 28, traders overwhelmingly price "No" at 100%, reflecting the absence of any verified reports, official US acknowledgments, or Iranian attributions of a major US cyberattack on Tehran during the period. Pre-strike disruptions by US Cyber Command blinded Iranian command-and-control, but subsequent Iranian responses— including hacks on US medical firm Stryker and threats to critical infrastructure—have not prompted reciprocal public US cyber escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus prioritizes open-source evidence over speculation, though classified operations or late attributions could theoretically prompt resolution disputes. Ceasefire negotiations and Iran's prolonged internet blackout add uncertainty to any hidden actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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