Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion outside the US embassy in Oslo, classifying it as a terror bombing with intent to kill or cause major damage, though no injuries occurred; their mother was later detained as well. Despite the incident occurring amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing airstrikes and proxy threats, no public evidence has linked the suspects to Tehran, and over three weeks have passed without any US official accusation via State Department statements, White House briefings, or intelligence releases. Trader consensus at 100% "No" reflects this evidentiary gap and elapsed timeline, though late-breaking intelligence tying the perpetrators to Iranian proxies could prompt a reversal before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
$440,910 Vol.
$440,910 Vol.
$440,910 Vol.
$440,910 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion outside the US embassy in Oslo, classifying it as a terror bombing with intent to kill or cause major damage, though no injuries occurred; their mother was later detained as well. Despite the incident occurring amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing airstrikes and proxy threats, no public evidence has linked the suspects to Tehran, and over three weeks have passed without any US official accusation via State Department statements, White House briefings, or intelligence releases. Trader consensus at 100% "No" reflects this evidentiary gap and elapsed timeline, though late-breaking intelligence tying the perpetrators to Iranian proxies could prompt a reversal before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Market Opened: Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$440,910Market Opened
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion outside the US embassy in Oslo, classifying it as a terror bombing with intent to kill or cause major damage, though no injuries occurred; their mother was later detained as well. Despite the incident occurring amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing airstrikes and proxy threats, no public evidence has linked the suspects to Tehran, and over three weeks have passed without any US official accusation via State Department statements, White House briefings, or intelligence releases. Trader consensus at 100% "No" reflects this evidentiary gap and elapsed timeline, though late-breaking intelligence tying the perpetrators to Iranian proxies could prompt a reversal before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Volume
$440,910Market Opened
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion outside the US embassy in Oslo, classifying it as a terror bombing with intent to kill or cause major damage, though no injuries occurred; their mother was later detained as well. Despite the incident occurring amid heightened US-Iran tensions from ongoing airstrikes and proxy threats, no public evidence has linked the suspects to Tehran, and over three weeks have passed without any US official accusation via State Department statements, White House briefings, or intelligence releases. Trader consensus at 100% "No" reflects this evidentiary gap and elapsed timeline, though late-breaking intelligence tying the perpetrators to Iranian proxies could prompt a reversal before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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