Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

$877,809 Vol.

Jan 31

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$877,809
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 5:40 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$877,809 Vol.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Jan 31

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

January 9

$109,799 Vol.

<1%

January 12

$2,391 Vol.

54%

January 13

$1,586 Vol.

55%

January 14

$247 Vol.

48%

January 15

$835 Vol.

46%

January 16

$613 Vol.

51%

January 17

$180 Vol.

45%

About

Volume
$877,809
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 5:40 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.