A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has drawn in additional countries including Bahrain, which conducted direct missile strikes from its territory, and allies like the UK and Germany providing bases such as RAF Fairford and Ramstein for operations. France and Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia, have intercepted Iranian missiles and drones amid ongoing exchanges targeting Israeli cities, U.S. assets, and oil infrastructure. President Trump recently threatened escalation against Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and energy plants, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation, as oil prices surge and diplomatic pushes for de-escalation intensify ahead of potential ground operations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
$266,222 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
April 15
11%
April 30
19%
$266,222 Vol.
April 15
$148,104 Vol.
11%
April 30
$118,118 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has drawn in additional countries including Bahrain, which conducted direct missile strikes from its territory, and allies like the UK and Germany providing bases such as RAF Fairford and Ramstein for operations. France and Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia, have intercepted Iranian missiles and drones amid ongoing exchanges targeting Israeli cities, U.S. assets, and oil infrastructure. President Trump recently threatened escalation against Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and energy plants, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation, as oil prices surge and diplomatic pushes for de-escalation intensify ahead of potential ground operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$266,222End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has drawn in additional countries including Bahrain, which conducted direct missile strikes from its territory, and allies like the UK and Germany providing bases such as RAF Fairford and Ramstein for operations. France and Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia, have intercepted Iranian missiles and drones amid ongoing exchanges targeting Israeli cities, U.S. assets, and oil infrastructure. President Trump recently threatened escalation against Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and energy plants, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation, as oil prices surge and diplomatic pushes for de-escalation intensify ahead of potential ground operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$266,222End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has drawn in additional countries including Bahrain, which conducted direct missile strikes from its territory, and allies like the UK and Germany providing bases such as RAF Fairford and Ramstein for operations. France and Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia, have intercepted Iranian missiles and drones amid ongoing exchanges targeting Israeli cities, U.S. assets, and oil infrastructure. President Trump recently threatened escalation against Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and energy plants, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation, as oil prices surge and diplomatic pushes for de-escalation intensify ahead of potential ground operations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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