The US-Israel war against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, via Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership, has drawn in additional actors, with Bahrain conducting the first confirmed ballistic missile launches from Persian Gulf soil last week using US-supplied HIMARS systems, and Kuwait hosting US strikes. President Trump stated on April 1 that intensified operations could wrap up in two to three weeks, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional assets, including recent hits near Passover. Saudi Arabia and UAE provide logistical support but avoid direct action, as oil disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats fuel trader caution over further escalation, potential ground invasions, or diplomatic off-ramps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
$256,496 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
April 15
11%
April 30
20%
$256,496 Vol.
April 15
$139,389 Vol.
11%
April 30
$117,107 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US-Israel war against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, via Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership, has drawn in additional actors, with Bahrain conducting the first confirmed ballistic missile launches from Persian Gulf soil last week using US-supplied HIMARS systems, and Kuwait hosting US strikes. President Trump stated on April 1 that intensified operations could wrap up in two to three weeks, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional assets, including recent hits near Passover. Saudi Arabia and UAE provide logistical support but avoid direct action, as oil disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats fuel trader caution over further escalation, potential ground invasions, or diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$256,496End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US-Israel war against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, via Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership, has drawn in additional actors, with Bahrain conducting the first confirmed ballistic missile launches from Persian Gulf soil last week using US-supplied HIMARS systems, and Kuwait hosting US strikes. President Trump stated on April 1 that intensified operations could wrap up in two to three weeks, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional assets, including recent hits near Passover. Saudi Arabia and UAE provide logistical support but avoid direct action, as oil disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats fuel trader caution over further escalation, potential ground invasions, or diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$256,496End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel war against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, via Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership, has drawn in additional actors, with Bahrain conducting the first confirmed ballistic missile launches from Persian Gulf soil last week using US-supplied HIMARS systems, and Kuwait hosting US strikes. President Trump stated on April 1 that intensified operations could wrap up in two to three weeks, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional assets, including recent hits near Passover. Saudi Arabia and UAE provide logistical support but avoid direct action, as oil disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats fuel trader caution over further escalation, potential ground invasions, or diplomatic off-ramps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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