**United States and Israeli forces initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, Fordow, Bushehr, and Arak, missile production facilities, and energy infrastructure including South Pars gas fields.** Operations continued through late March, including strikes reported on March 28 degrading Iran's missile capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Houthi incursions supporting Tehran. A US 15-point diplomatic proposal was delivered via Pakistan on March 24, yet escalation risks remain with Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions and additional troop deployments. No other nations have conducted verified offensive military actions against Iran by March 30, positioning traders to monitor final-hour developments before the March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,830,161 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
4%
UAE
3%
Qatar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Jordan
1%
Any E.U. Country
1%
UK
1%
Kuwait
1%
Turkey
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Canada
<1%
Germany
<1%
$10,830,161 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,204,303 Vol.
4%
UAE
$2,849,881 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$946,120 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,798 Vol.
2%
Jordan
$189,646 Vol.
1%
Any E.U. Country
$472,045 Vol.
1%
UK
$948,387 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,526 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$481,794 Vol.
1%
France
$750,278 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,053 Vol.
1%
Canada
$339,302 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$912,034 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**United States and Israeli forces initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, Fordow, Bushehr, and Arak, missile production facilities, and energy infrastructure including South Pars gas fields.** Operations continued through late March, including strikes reported on March 28 degrading Iran's missile capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Houthi incursions supporting Tehran. A US 15-point diplomatic proposal was delivered via Pakistan on March 24, yet escalation risks remain with Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions and additional troop deployments. No other nations have conducted verified offensive military actions against Iran by March 30, positioning traders to monitor final-hour developments before the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,830,161End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**United States and Israeli forces initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, Fordow, Bushehr, and Arak, missile production facilities, and energy infrastructure including South Pars gas fields.** Operations continued through late March, including strikes reported on March 28 degrading Iran's missile capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Houthi incursions supporting Tehran. A US 15-point diplomatic proposal was delivered via Pakistan on March 24, yet escalation risks remain with Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions and additional troop deployments. No other nations have conducted verified offensive military actions against Iran by March 30, positioning traders to monitor final-hour developments before the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,830,161End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**United States and Israeli forces initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites like Natanz, Fordow, Bushehr, and Arak, missile production facilities, and energy infrastructure including South Pars gas fields.** Operations continued through late March, including strikes reported on March 28 degrading Iran's missile capabilities, amid Iranian retaliatory missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Houthi incursions supporting Tehran. A US 15-point diplomatic proposal was delivered via Pakistan on March 24, yet escalation risks remain with Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions and additional troop deployments. No other nations have conducted verified offensive military actions against Iran by March 30, positioning traders to monitor final-hour developments before the March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions