Trader consensus prices a 70.5% chance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the April 12 parliamentary election where his Fidesz party faces its toughest challenge in 16 years from Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party. Recent polls show opposition momentum amid corruption allegations, EU frustrations over Orbán's policy blockades, and reports of Fidesz vote-buying and intimidation released last week, eroding public support. A fragmented outcome could force coalition negotiations or a no-confidence scenario, with far-right Our Homeland as a potential kingmaker; historical incumbency advantages persist, but trader odds reflect shifting sentiment toward change before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedViktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
$69,173 Vol.
$69,173 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$69,173 Vol.
$69,173 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 70.5% chance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the April 12 parliamentary election where his Fidesz party faces its toughest challenge in 16 years from Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party. Recent polls show opposition momentum amid corruption allegations, EU frustrations over Orbán's policy blockades, and reports of Fidesz vote-buying and intimidation released last week, eroding public support. A fragmented outcome could force coalition negotiations or a no-confidence scenario, with far-right Our Homeland as a potential kingmaker; historical incumbency advantages persist, but trader odds reflect shifting sentiment toward change before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$69,173End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 70.5% chance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the April 12 parliamentary election where his Fidesz party faces its toughest challenge in 16 years from Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party. Recent polls show opposition momentum amid corruption allegations, EU frustrations over Orbán's policy blockades, and reports of Fidesz vote-buying and intimidation released last week, eroding public support. A fragmented outcome could force coalition negotiations or a no-confidence scenario, with far-right Our Homeland as a potential kingmaker; historical incumbency advantages persist, but trader odds reflect shifting sentiment toward change before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$69,173End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 70.5% chance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the April 12 parliamentary election where his Fidesz party faces its toughest challenge in 16 years from Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party. Recent polls show opposition momentum amid corruption allegations, EU frustrations over Orbán's policy blockades, and reports of Fidesz vote-buying and intimidation released last week, eroding public support. A fragmented outcome could force coalition negotiations or a no-confidence scenario, with far-right Our Homeland as a potential kingmaker; historical incumbency advantages persist, but trader odds reflect shifting sentiment toward change before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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