Republican incumbent Celeste Maloy holds a polling edge over Democrat Bill Rowling in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, per the latest Emerson College survey (Oct 23-27) showing her at 49% to his 43%, reinforcing trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability for the GOP in this R+12 leaning district. Maloy's incumbency advantage from her 2023 special election victory by six points, combined with a fundraising lead—over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Rowling's under $300,000—bolsters her position amid Utah's strong Republican turnout history. Polls remain within the margin of error, reflecting competitiveness in the district's more moderate areas, with the November 5 general election as the key resolution date. National midterm dynamics and early voting trends could still influence the narrow path to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUT-02 House Election Winner
UT-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
16%
Republican Party
59%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
16%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Celeste Maloy holds a polling edge over Democrat Bill Rowling in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, per the latest Emerson College survey (Oct 23-27) showing her at 49% to his 43%, reinforcing trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability for the GOP in this R+12 leaning district. Maloy's incumbency advantage from her 2023 special election victory by six points, combined with a fundraising lead—over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Rowling's under $300,000—bolsters her position amid Utah's strong Republican turnout history. Polls remain within the margin of error, reflecting competitiveness in the district's more moderate areas, with the November 5 general election as the key resolution date. National midterm dynamics and early voting trends could still influence the narrow path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Celeste Maloy holds a polling edge over Democrat Bill Rowling in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, per the latest Emerson College survey (Oct 23-27) showing her at 49% to his 43%, reinforcing trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability for the GOP in this R+12 leaning district. Maloy's incumbency advantage from her 2023 special election victory by six points, combined with a fundraising lead—over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Rowling's under $300,000—bolsters her position amid Utah's strong Republican turnout history. Polls remain within the margin of error, reflecting competitiveness in the district's more moderate areas, with the November 5 general election as the key resolution date. National midterm dynamics and early voting trends could still influence the narrow path to victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Celeste Maloy holds a polling edge over Democrat Bill Rowling in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, per the latest Emerson College survey (Oct 23-27) showing her at 49% to his 43%, reinforcing trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability for the GOP in this R+12 leaning district. Maloy's incumbency advantage from her 2023 special election victory by six points, combined with a fundraising lead—over $1.5 million cash-on-hand versus Rowling's under $300,000—bolsters her position amid Utah's strong Republican turnout history. Polls remain within the margin of error, reflecting competitiveness in the district's more moderate areas, with the November 5 general election as the key resolution date. National midterm dynamics and early voting trends could still influence the narrow path to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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