Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with no agreement on transferring Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin the 82.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. February Geneva talks concluded without a deal, as US demands for dismantling Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities plus full stockpile surrender clashed with Iran's insistence on maintaining low-level enrichment rights, per reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. A late February IAEA report highlighted Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium and restricted inspector access, eroding verification confidence. March analyses noted US negotiator unpreparedness, leaving diplomacy frozen amid sanctions and military threats, with traders betting against a pre-deadline breakthrough absent major concessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NEW
$21,352 Vol.
NEW
$21,352 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$21,352 Vol.
NEW
$21,352 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with no agreement on transferring Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin the 82.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. February Geneva talks concluded without a deal, as US demands for dismantling Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities plus full stockpile surrender clashed with Iran's insistence on maintaining low-level enrichment rights, per reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. A late February IAEA report highlighted Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium and restricted inspector access, eroding verification confidence. March analyses noted US negotiator unpreparedness, leaving diplomacy frozen amid sanctions and military threats, with traders betting against a pre-deadline breakthrough absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$21,352End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with no agreement on transferring Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin the 82.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. February Geneva talks concluded without a deal, as US demands for dismantling Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities plus full stockpile surrender clashed with Iran's insistence on maintaining low-level enrichment rights, per reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. A late February IAEA report highlighted Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium and restricted inspector access, eroding verification confidence. March analyses noted US negotiator unpreparedness, leaving diplomacy frozen amid sanctions and military threats, with traders betting against a pre-deadline breakthrough absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,357End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with no agreement on transferring Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin the 82.5% implied probability for "No" by May 31. February Geneva talks concluded without a deal, as US demands for dismantling Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities plus full stockpile surrender clashed with Iran's insistence on maintaining low-level enrichment rights, per reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. A late February IAEA report highlighted Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium and restricted inspector access, eroding verification confidence. March analyses noted US negotiator unpreparedness, leaving diplomacy frozen amid sanctions and military threats, with traders betting against a pre-deadline breakthrough absent major concessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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