US-Iran hostilities escalated into open war on February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and missile sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone barrages on US allies and bases. In the past 48 hours, US special forces reportedly entered Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue a downed F-15 pilot amid searches for another missing airman, marking the first confirmed ground incursion while seven US aircraft have been lost in five weeks of air operations. Pentagon deployments of marines and paratroopers signal preparations for potential amphibious assaults on Persian Gulf islands like Kharg to secure oil terminals, though Iran warns of fierce resistance. President Trump threatens further strikes on power plants, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term odds for large-scale troop entry absent a major provocation, ahead of possible diplomatic deadlines or rescue missions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$119,837,268 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
92%
December 31
95%
$119,837,268 Vol.
March 31
$73,401,703 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$33,158,539 Vol.
92%
December 31
$11,220,673 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities escalated into open war on February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and missile sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone barrages on US allies and bases. In the past 48 hours, US special forces reportedly entered Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue a downed F-15 pilot amid searches for another missing airman, marking the first confirmed ground incursion while seven US aircraft have been lost in five weeks of air operations. Pentagon deployments of marines and paratroopers signal preparations for potential amphibious assaults on Persian Gulf islands like Kharg to secure oil terminals, though Iran warns of fierce resistance. President Trump threatens further strikes on power plants, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term odds for large-scale troop entry absent a major provocation, ahead of possible diplomatic deadlines or rescue missions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$119,837,268Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities escalated into open war on February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and missile sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone barrages on US allies and bases. In the past 48 hours, US special forces reportedly entered Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue a downed F-15 pilot amid searches for another missing airman, marking the first confirmed ground incursion while seven US aircraft have been lost in five weeks of air operations. Pentagon deployments of marines and paratroopers signal preparations for potential amphibious assaults on Persian Gulf islands like Kharg to secure oil terminals, though Iran warns of fierce resistance. President Trump threatens further strikes on power plants, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term odds for large-scale troop entry absent a major provocation, ahead of possible diplomatic deadlines or rescue missions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119,837,268Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
US-Iran hostilities escalated into open war on February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and missile sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone barrages on US allies and bases. In the past 48 hours, US special forces reportedly entered Iranian territory on April 3 to rescue a downed F-15 pilot amid searches for another missing airman, marking the first confirmed ground incursion while seven US aircraft have been lost in five weeks of air operations. Pentagon deployments of marines and paratroopers signal preparations for potential amphibious assaults on Persian Gulf islands like Kharg to secure oil terminals, though Iran warns of fierce resistance. President Trump threatens further strikes on power plants, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term odds for large-scale troop entry absent a major provocation, ahead of possible diplomatic deadlines or rescue missions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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