US-Iran hostilities, sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist into the sixth week with daily bombings targeting Iranian military infrastructure and retaliatory drone strikes on regional US assets. Special forces insertions for combat search-and-rescue of downed US pilots represent initial ground entries, fueling trader bets on broader escalation amid Pentagon deployments of thousands of Marines, paratroopers, and logistics to Gulf bases. President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—threatening power plant strikes and island seizures like Kharg—met Tehran's rejection, heightening invasion risks. Diplomatic intermediaries push de-escalation, but no breakthroughs; watch for ground operations if oil chokepoints remain closed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$119,920,041 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
93%
December 31
95%
$119,920,041 Vol.
March 31
$73,402,864 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$33,230,257 Vol.
93%
December 31
$11,224,909 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist into the sixth week with daily bombings targeting Iranian military infrastructure and retaliatory drone strikes on regional US assets. Special forces insertions for combat search-and-rescue of downed US pilots represent initial ground entries, fueling trader bets on broader escalation amid Pentagon deployments of thousands of Marines, paratroopers, and logistics to Gulf bases. President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—threatening power plant strikes and island seizures like Kharg—met Tehran's rejection, heightening invasion risks. Diplomatic intermediaries push de-escalation, but no breakthroughs; watch for ground operations if oil chokepoints remain closed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$119,920,041Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist into the sixth week with daily bombings targeting Iranian military infrastructure and retaliatory drone strikes on regional US assets. Special forces insertions for combat search-and-rescue of downed US pilots represent initial ground entries, fueling trader bets on broader escalation amid Pentagon deployments of thousands of Marines, paratroopers, and logistics to Gulf bases. President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—threatening power plant strikes and island seizures like Kharg—met Tehran's rejection, heightening invasion risks. Diplomatic intermediaries push de-escalation, but no breakthroughs; watch for ground operations if oil chokepoints remain closed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119,920,041Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
US-Iran hostilities, sparked by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist into the sixth week with daily bombings targeting Iranian military infrastructure and retaliatory drone strikes on regional US assets. Special forces insertions for combat search-and-rescue of downed US pilots represent initial ground entries, fueling trader bets on broader escalation amid Pentagon deployments of thousands of Marines, paratroopers, and logistics to Gulf bases. President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—threatening power plant strikes and island seizures like Kharg—met Tehran's rejection, heightening invasion risks. Diplomatic intermediaries push de-escalation, but no breakthroughs; watch for ground operations if oil chokepoints remain closed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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