Following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—Israel conducted airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran to downplay damage while vowing restraint. The US bolstered defensive postures, deploying THAAD systems to Israel and additional naval assets in the region, but President Biden reiterated opposition to escalation and no involvement in offensive actions against Iran. No official US statements, troop movements, or congressional authorizations signal ground force entry into Iran, a threshold requiring massive escalation amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation via Gulf allies. Traders price low odds reflecting historical US aversion to direct invasion, with the November 5 presidential election and potential Israeli follow-ups as key upcoming catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$35,994,673 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
16%
April 30
62%
December 31
71%
$35,994,673 Vol.
March 31
$24,354,322 Vol.
16%
April 30
$4,741,601 Vol.
62%
December 31
$4,825,981 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—Israel conducted airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran to downplay damage while vowing restraint. The US bolstered defensive postures, deploying THAAD systems to Israel and additional naval assets in the region, but President Biden reiterated opposition to escalation and no involvement in offensive actions against Iran. No official US statements, troop movements, or congressional authorizations signal ground force entry into Iran, a threshold requiring massive escalation amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation via Gulf allies. Traders price low odds reflecting historical US aversion to direct invasion, with the November 5 presidential election and potential Israeli follow-ups as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$35,994,673Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—Israel conducted airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran to downplay damage while vowing restraint. The US bolstered defensive postures, deploying THAAD systems to Israel and additional naval assets in the region, but President Biden reiterated opposition to escalation and no involvement in offensive actions against Iran. No official US statements, troop movements, or congressional authorizations signal ground force entry into Iran, a threshold requiring massive escalation amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation via Gulf allies. Traders price low odds reflecting historical US aversion to direct invasion, with the November 5 presidential election and potential Israeli follow-ups as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$35,994,673Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel—retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—Israel conducted airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran to downplay damage while vowing restraint. The US bolstered defensive postures, deploying THAAD systems to Israel and additional naval assets in the region, but President Biden reiterated opposition to escalation and no involvement in offensive actions against Iran. No official US statements, troop movements, or congressional authorizations signal ground force entry into Iran, a threshold requiring massive escalation amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation via Gulf allies. Traders price low odds reflecting historical US aversion to direct invasion, with the November 5 presidential election and potential Israeli follow-ups as key upcoming catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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