Skip to main content
Market icon
Politics·Primaries

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Christian Menefee 86.6%

Al Green 13.5%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Polymarket

$22,953 Vol.

Christian Menefee 86.6%

Al Green 13.5%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Polymarket

$22,953 Vol.

Christian Menefee

$14,080 Vol.

82%

Al Green

$3,873 Vol.

14%

Amanda Edwards

$2,409 Vol.

<1%

Gretchen Brown

$2,591 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee's first-round lead of 49% to Rep. Al Green's 43% in the March 3 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th Congressional District propelled him to an 85% implied probability in trader consensus ahead of the May 26 runoff, reflecting his momentum from winning the January special election and strong incumbency in the redrawn Houston-area seat. Menefee's fundraising dominance—$1 million raised in Q1 2026, including $600,000 post-primary—outpaces Green, who was displaced into the district by redistricting after representing TX-09. Recent polls show Menefee ahead by 6 points (41%-35%), bolstering his edge among key Democratic primary voters, though Green's two-decade tenure retains a loyal base and low turnout could narrow the gap before early voting begins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,953
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee's first-round lead of 49% to Rep. Al Green's 43% in the March 3 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th Congressional District propelled him to an 85% implied probability in trader consensus ahead of the May 26 runoff, reflecting his momentum from winning the January special election and strong incumbency in the redrawn Houston-area seat. Menefee's fundraising dominance—$1 million raised in Q1 2026, including $600,000 post-primary—outpaces Green, who was displaced into the district by redistricting after representing TX-09. Recent polls show Menefee ahead by 6 points (41%-35%), bolstering his edge among key Democratic primary voters, though Green's two-decade tenure retains a loyal base and low turnout could narrow the gap before early voting begins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,953
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

Market icon

Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?

72%
Market icon

Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

91%
Market icon

Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

74%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christian Menefee" at 82%, followed by "Al Green" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $23K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Christian Menefee" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Al Green" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.