In the wake of the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary, where no candidate secured a majority, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to the May 26 runoff, driving trader consensus toward Paxton at 65.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including an Impact Research survey from mid-March showing Paxton ahead 53%-37%, and a March 29 CPAC straw poll where he dominated 67%-21% in Cornyn's absence, underscore Paxton's momentum among the GOP base despite Cornyn's 20-to-33-to-1 primary spending edge. President Trump's pending endorsement remains a pivotal uncertainty, while negligible odds for Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt reflect their first-round eliminations. The race highlights populist vs. establishment tensions in this battleground primary.