Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the state's partisan lean and the absence of viable Republican challengers. The Republican primary features only a write-in candidate requiring thousands of votes to advance, while Luján maintains a wide lead in the Democratic primary. Historical precedent shows no Republican Senate victory in New Mexico since 2002. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health development affecting the incumbent before the November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNew Mexico Senate Election Winner
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
$16,913 ปริมาณ
$16,913 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
3%
$16,913 ปริมาณ
$16,913 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$8,224 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican
$8,689 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the state's partisan lean and the absence of viable Republican challengers. The Republican primary features only a write-in candidate requiring thousands of votes to advance, while Luján maintains a wide lead in the Democratic primary. Historical precedent shows no Republican Senate victory in New Mexico since 2002. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health development affecting the incumbent before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,913วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the state's partisan lean and the absence of viable Republican challengers. The Republican primary features only a write-in candidate requiring thousands of votes to advance, while Luján maintains a wide lead in the Democratic primary. Historical precedent shows no Republican Senate victory in New Mexico since 2002. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health development affecting the incumbent before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,913วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in the market's 95% implied probability for a Democratic winner. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the state's partisan lean and the absence of viable Republican challengers. The Republican primary features only a write-in candidate requiring thousands of votes to advance, while Luján maintains a wide lead in the Democratic primary. Historical precedent shows no Republican Senate victory in New Mexico since 2002. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health development affecting the incumbent before the November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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