Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9 percent probability to a Democratic winner. Luján faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 2 contest and benefits from New Mexico’s consistent Democratic lean in federal elections. Republican primary efforts collapsed after the leading candidate’s disqualification, leaving only a write-in option for the general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Democratic primary upset or an unforeseen ballot access development could still alter the outcome before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Нью-Мексико
Победитель выборов в Сенат Нью-Мексико
$16,913 Объем
$16,913 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
95%
Республиканец
2%
$16,913 Объем
$16,913 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
$8,224 Объем
95%
Республиканец
$8,689 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9 percent probability to a Democratic winner. Luján faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 2 contest and benefits from New Mexico’s consistent Democratic lean in federal elections. Republican primary efforts collapsed after the leading candidate’s disqualification, leaving only a write-in option for the general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Democratic primary upset or an unforeseen ballot access development could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$16,913Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9 percent probability to a Democratic winner. Luján faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 2 contest and benefits from New Mexico’s consistent Democratic lean in federal elections. Republican primary efforts collapsed after the leading candidate’s disqualification, leaving only a write-in option for the general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Democratic primary upset or an unforeseen ballot access development could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$16,913Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9 percent probability to a Democratic winner. Luján faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 2 contest and benefits from New Mexico’s consistent Democratic lean in federal elections. Republican primary efforts collapsed after the leading candidate’s disqualification, leaving only a write-in option for the general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Democratic primary upset or an unforeseen ballot access development could still alter the outcome before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы