Incumbent Lindsey Graham's strong institutional support, including endorsements from President Trump, Governor Henry McMaster, and Senator Tim Scott, combined with South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold—where the GOP routinely dominates statewide races—positions Republicans as heavy favorites at 75.5% in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate election. Recent GOP primary polls, such as Pulse Opinion Research showing Graham at 41% against challenger Mark Lynch's 21% amid 22% undecideds, highlight base dissatisfaction, exacerbated by Paul Dans' April 10 dropout and endorsement of Lynch, yet Graham's massive war chest deters a serious upset ahead of the June 9 primary. Democrat frontrunner Annie Andrews has raised over $4 million and trails narrowly in early sponsored polls (e.g., 47-42%), but historical base rates for incumbents in safe red seats keep Democratic odds low despite Graham's 61% unfavorable rating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,403 Vol.
$24,403 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
76%
Democrat
25%
$24,403 Vol.
$24,403 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$8,356 Vol.
76%
Democrat
$16,047 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Lindsey Graham's strong institutional support, including endorsements from President Trump, Governor Henry McMaster, and Senator Tim Scott, combined with South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold—where the GOP routinely dominates statewide races—positions Republicans as heavy favorites at 75.5% in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate election. Recent GOP primary polls, such as Pulse Opinion Research showing Graham at 41% against challenger Mark Lynch's 21% amid 22% undecideds, highlight base dissatisfaction, exacerbated by Paul Dans' April 10 dropout and endorsement of Lynch, yet Graham's massive war chest deters a serious upset ahead of the June 9 primary. Democrat frontrunner Annie Andrews has raised over $4 million and trails narrowly in early sponsored polls (e.g., 47-42%), but historical base rates for incumbents in safe red seats keep Democratic odds low despite Graham's 61% unfavorable rating.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$24,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Lindsey Graham's strong institutional support, including endorsements from President Trump, Governor Henry McMaster, and Senator Tim Scott, combined with South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold—where the GOP routinely dominates statewide races—positions Republicans as heavy favorites at 75.5% in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate election. Recent GOP primary polls, such as Pulse Opinion Research showing Graham at 41% against challenger Mark Lynch's 21% amid 22% undecideds, highlight base dissatisfaction, exacerbated by Paul Dans' April 10 dropout and endorsement of Lynch, yet Graham's massive war chest deters a serious upset ahead of the June 9 primary. Democrat frontrunner Annie Andrews has raised over $4 million and trails narrowly in early sponsored polls (e.g., 47-42%), but historical base rates for incumbents in safe red seats keep Democratic odds low despite Graham's 61% unfavorable rating.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$24,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Lindsey Graham's strong institutional support, including endorsements from President Trump, Governor Henry McMaster, and Senator Tim Scott, combined with South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold—where the GOP routinely dominates statewide races—positions Republicans as heavy favorites at 75.5% in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate election. Recent GOP primary polls, such as Pulse Opinion Research showing Graham at 41% against challenger Mark Lynch's 21% amid 22% undecideds, highlight base dissatisfaction, exacerbated by Paul Dans' April 10 dropout and endorsement of Lynch, yet Graham's massive war chest deters a serious upset ahead of the June 9 primary. Democrat frontrunner Annie Andrews has raised over $4 million and trails narrowly in early sponsored polls (e.g., 47-42%), but historical base rates for incumbents in safe red seats keep Democratic odds low despite Graham's 61% unfavorable rating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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