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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.7%

Marco Rubio 21.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.4%

Byron Donalds 3.3%

Polymarket

$477,552,595 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.7%

Marco Rubio 21.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.4%

Byron Donalds 3.3%

Polymarket

$477,552,595 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,640,004 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,480,936 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,030,752 Vol.

5%

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Byron Donalds

$31,638,992 Vol.

3%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,676,198 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,161,040 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,734,576 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,553,655 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,401,963 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$15,648,663 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,188,061 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,823,060 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,754,981 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,534,178 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,643,458 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$6,957,442 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,077,595 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$8,824,229 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,048,764 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,761,166 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,694,740 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$3,746,681 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,843,630 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,253,747 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,087,932 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,620,811 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,143,567 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$20,846,620 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,339,831 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,565,303 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,371,686 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,229,930 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,225,066 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$9,453,844 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$31,555,337 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49%, reflecting his high-profile nomination by President-elect Donald Trump as Secretary of Health and Human Services on November 14, elevating his national stature and appeal to GOP voters skeptical of establishment health policies. J.D. Vance, at 37%, benefits from his role as vice president-elect, positioning him as a natural heir apparent with strong ties to Trump's base in swing states like Ohio. Marco Rubio's 21% share stems from his December nomination as Secretary of State, bolstering his foreign policy credentials amid speculation on Trump's endorsement influence for 2028. These post-election cabinet picks signal Trumpworld frontrunners, though 2026 midterms and party dynamics could shift early positioning before primaries begin.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$477,552,595
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49%, reflecting his high-profile nomination by President-elect Donald Trump as Secretary of Health and Human Services on November 14, elevating his national stature and appeal to GOP voters skeptical of establishment health policies. J.D. Vance, at 37%, benefits from his role as vice president-elect, positioning him as a natural heir apparent with strong ties to Trump's base in swing states like Ohio. Marco Rubio's 21% share stems from his December nomination as Secretary of State, bolstering his foreign policy credentials amid speculation on Trump's endorsement influence for 2028. These post-election cabinet picks signal Trumpworld frontrunners, though 2026 midterms and party dynamics could shift early positioning before primaries begin.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49%, reflecting his high-profile nomination by President-elect Donald Trump as Secretary of Health and Human Services on November 14, elevating his national stature and appeal to GOP voters skeptical of establishment health policies. J.D. Vance, at 37%, benefits from his role as vice president-elect, positioning him as a natural heir apparent with strong ties to Trump's base in swing states like Ohio. Marco Rubio's 21% share stems from his December nomination as Secretary of State, bolstering his foreign policy credentials amid speculation on Trump's endorsement influence for 2028. These post-election cabinet picks signal Trumpworld frontrunners, though 2026 midterms and party dynamics could shift early positioning before primaries begin.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $477.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.