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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%

Polymarket

$459,191,141 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.3%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%

Polymarket

$459,191,141 Vol.

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JD Vance

$8,988,869 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,513,086 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,161,342 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,177,367 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,759,747 Vol.

4%

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Tucker Carlson

$8,463,422 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,379,798 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,206,462 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,290,546 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,376,816 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$8,173,488 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,663,917 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,465,138 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$14,837,055 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,907,370 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,371,949 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$6,982,968 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,093,104 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,549,297 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,293,413 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,182,474 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,188,519 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,437,478 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,255,001 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,643,356 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,247,669 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$26,960,269 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,093,968 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,444,036 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$27,835,822 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,490,323 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$15,694,496 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,433,843 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,152,729 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$27,984,485 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$41,495,342 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.JD Vance holds a slim edge over Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, driven by Republicans' 2024 sweep that elevated the vice president-elect as the party's heir apparent amid Donald Trump's term limits. Democrats, reeling from Kamala Harris's defeat, lack a dominant figure, positioning the California governor—who has ramped up national attacks on the incoming administration—as their top alternative in this open primary field. The razor-thin spread reflects early-stage speculation with low trading volume, three years from Iowa caucuses and 2026 midterms that could separate contenders via swing-state performances, Trump endorsements, fundraising tallies, or scandals. Structural uncertainty favors cross-party bets until clearer paths emerge.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$459,191,141
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.JD Vance holds a slim edge over Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, driven by Republicans' 2024 sweep that elevated the vice president-elect as the party's heir apparent amid Donald Trump's term limits. Democrats, reeling from Kamala Harris's defeat, lack a dominant figure, positioning the California governor—who has ramped up national attacks on the incoming administration—as their top alternative in this open primary field. The razor-thin spread reflects early-stage speculation with low trading volume, three years from Iowa caucuses and 2026 midterms that could separate contenders via swing-state performances, Trump endorsements, fundraising tallies, or scandals. Structural uncertainty favors cross-party bets until clearer paths emerge.

JD Vance holds a slim edge over Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, driven by Republicans' 2024 sweep that elevated the vice president-elect as the party's heir apparent amid Donald Trump's term limits. Democrats, reeling from Kamala Harris's defeat, lack a dominant figure, positioning the California governor—who has ramped up national attacks on the incoming administration—as their top alternative in this open primary field. The razor-thin spread reflects early-stage speculation with low trading volume, three years from Iowa caucuses and 2026 midterms that could separate contenders via swing-state performances, Trump endorsements, fundraising tallies, or scandals. Structural uncertainty favors cross-party bets until clearer paths emerge.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $459.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.