Incumbent Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March appointment as Homeland Security Secretary opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, prompting Gov. Kevin Stitt to appoint oil executive Alan Armstrong as interim replacement—who, per state law, cannot run in November—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Republican general election winner. Oklahoma's entrenched Republican dominance, with Trump carrying the state by 33 points in 2020 and no competitive statewide Democratic wins since 2010, underpins this positioning amid early GOP primary polling favoring Rep. Kevin Hern over rivals like Rep. Stephanie Bice. A Democratic upset would require a discredited GOP nominee, unprecedented midterm turnout surge, or national anti-Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe-red seats favor the GOP hold ahead of the June 16 primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$6,634 Vol.
95%
Democrat
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March appointment as Homeland Security Secretary opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, prompting Gov. Kevin Stitt to appoint oil executive Alan Armstrong as interim replacement—who, per state law, cannot run in November—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Republican general election winner. Oklahoma's entrenched Republican dominance, with Trump carrying the state by 33 points in 2020 and no competitive statewide Democratic wins since 2010, underpins this positioning amid early GOP primary polling favoring Rep. Kevin Hern over rivals like Rep. Stephanie Bice. A Democratic upset would require a discredited GOP nominee, unprecedented midterm turnout surge, or national anti-Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe-red seats favor the GOP hold ahead of the June 16 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$6,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March appointment as Homeland Security Secretary opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, prompting Gov. Kevin Stitt to appoint oil executive Alan Armstrong as interim replacement—who, per state law, cannot run in November—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Republican general election winner. Oklahoma's entrenched Republican dominance, with Trump carrying the state by 33 points in 2020 and no competitive statewide Democratic wins since 2010, underpins this positioning amid early GOP primary polling favoring Rep. Kevin Hern over rivals like Rep. Stephanie Bice. A Democratic upset would require a discredited GOP nominee, unprecedented midterm turnout surge, or national anti-Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe-red seats favor the GOP hold ahead of the June 16 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$6,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March appointment as Homeland Security Secretary opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, prompting Gov. Kevin Stitt to appoint oil executive Alan Armstrong as interim replacement—who, per state law, cannot run in November—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Republican general election winner. Oklahoma's entrenched Republican dominance, with Trump carrying the state by 33 points in 2020 and no competitive statewide Democratic wins since 2010, underpins this positioning amid early GOP primary polling favoring Rep. Kevin Hern over rivals like Rep. Stephanie Bice. A Democratic upset would require a discredited GOP nominee, unprecedented midterm turnout surge, or national anti-Republican wave, though historical base rates for safe-red seats favor the GOP hold ahead of the June 16 primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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