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Politics·US Election

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Eric Conroy 74%

Holly Adams 16%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry 15%

Steven Erbeck 14%

Polymarket
NEW

$11,820 Vol.

Eric Conroy 74%

Holly Adams 16%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry 15%

Steven Erbeck 14%

Polymarket
NEW

$11,820 Vol.

Eric Conroy

$11,820 Vol.

74%

Holly Adams

$0 Vol.

16%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry

$0 Vol.

15%

Steven Erbeck

$0 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors former CIA case officer and Air Force veteran Eric Conroy at 71.5% implied probability to win the OH-01 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his national security credentials appealing to GOP voters in the redrawn district, endorsement from Sen. Bernie Moreno, and leading fundraising of $603,000 as of late 2025. Dentist and small business owner Steven Erbeck holds 15.5% with comparable cash-on-hand at $464,000, positioning him as the main challenger amid no public polls. Nonprofit leaders Rosemary Oglesby-Henry (11%) and Holly Adams (10%) lag due to minimal fundraising under $50,000. Recent candidate profiles highlight Conroy's disciplined leadership edge, with the new Republican-leaning map boosting general election prospects.

Trader consensus heavily favors former CIA case officer and Air Force veteran Eric Conroy at 71.5% implied probability to win the OH-01 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his national security credentials appealing to GOP voters in the redrawn district, endorsement from Sen. Bernie Moreno, and leading fundraising of $603,000 as of late 2025. Dentist and small business owner Steven Erbeck holds 15.5% with comparable cash-on-hand at $464,000, positioning him as the main challenger amid no public polls. Nonprofit leaders Rosemary Oglesby-Henry (11%) and Holly Adams (10%) lag due to minimal fundraising under $50,000. Recent candidate profiles highlight Conroy's disciplined leadership edge, with the new Republican-leaning map boosting general election prospects.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors former CIA case officer and Air Force veteran Eric Conroy at 71.5% implied probability to win the OH-01 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his national security credentials appealing to GOP voters in the redrawn district, endorsement from Sen. Bernie Moreno, and leading fundraising of $603,000 as of late 2025. Dentist and small business owner Steven Erbeck holds 15.5% with comparable cash-on-hand at $464,000, positioning him as the main challenger amid no public polls. Nonprofit leaders Rosemary Oglesby-Henry (11%) and Holly Adams (10%) lag due to minimal fundraising under $50,000. Recent candidate profiles highlight Conroy's disciplined leadership edge, with the new Republican-leaning map boosting general election prospects.

Trader consensus heavily favors former CIA case officer and Air Force veteran Eric Conroy at 71.5% implied probability to win the OH-01 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his national security credentials appealing to GOP voters in the redrawn district, endorsement from Sen. Bernie Moreno, and leading fundraising of $603,000 as of late 2025. Dentist and small business owner Steven Erbeck holds 15.5% with comparable cash-on-hand at $464,000, positioning him as the main challenger amid no public polls. Nonprofit leaders Rosemary Oglesby-Henry (11%) and Holly Adams (10%) lag due to minimal fundraising under $50,000. Recent candidate profiles highlight Conroy's disciplined leadership edge, with the new Republican-leaning map boosting general election prospects.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Conroy" at 74%, followed by "Holly Adams" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $11.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Eric Conroy" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Holly Adams" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.