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Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

Market icon

Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

Mar 31

Mar 31

<1% chance
Polymarket

$57,992 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$57,992 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Sarkozy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time between November 10, 2025, 1:30 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be incarcerated by March 31, driven by his current status under judicial supervision following a brief 20-day stint in La Santé prison last October pending appeals in multiple corruption and illegal financing cases, including the Libyan campaign funding criminal conspiracy conviction. A Paris court rejected his March 9 bid to merge sentences from the Bygmalion affair, mandating a six-month term convertible to home detention with an electronic tag given his age over 70, but no immediate prison return. His appeal trial in the Libyan case, opened March 16, remains ongoing with hearings as recent as March 26, offering no basis for swift re-incarceration. Only an abrupt revocation of supervision or accelerated ruling could alter this before the deadline.

Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be incarcerated by March 31, driven by his current status under judicial supervision following a brief 20-day stint in La Santé prison last October pending appeals in multiple corruption and illegal financing cases, including the Libyan campaign funding criminal conspiracy conviction. A Paris court rejected his March 9 bid to merge sentences from the Bygmalion affair, mandating a six-month term convertible to home detention with an electronic tag given his age over 70, but no immediate prison return. His appeal trial in the Libyan case, opened March 16, remains ongoing with hearings as recent as March 26, offering no basis for swift re-incarceration. Only an abrupt revocation of supervision or accelerated ruling could alter this before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Sarkozy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time between November 10, 2025, 1:30 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be incarcerated by March 31, driven by his current status under judicial supervision following a brief 20-day stint in La Santé prison last October pending appeals in multiple corruption and illegal financing cases, including the Libyan campaign funding criminal conspiracy conviction. A Paris court rejected his March 9 bid to merge sentences from the Bygmalion affair, mandating a six-month term convertible to home detention with an electronic tag given his age over 70, but no immediate prison return. His appeal trial in the Libyan case, opened March 16, remains ongoing with hearings as recent as March 26, offering no basis for swift re-incarceration. Only an abrupt revocation of supervision or accelerated ruling could alter this before the deadline.

Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be incarcerated by March 31, driven by his current status under judicial supervision following a brief 20-day stint in La Santé prison last October pending appeals in multiple corruption and illegal financing cases, including the Libyan campaign funding criminal conspiracy conviction. A Paris court rejected his March 9 bid to merge sentences from the Bygmalion affair, mandating a six-month term convertible to home detention with an electronic tag given his age over 70, but no immediate prison return. His appeal trial in the Libyan case, opened March 16, remains ongoing with hearings as recent as March 26, offering no basis for swift re-incarceration. Only an abrupt revocation of supervision or accelerated ruling could alter this before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?" has generated $58K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.