Next French Presidential Election

Name: Next French Presidential Election
Start: 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z
End: 2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Next French Presidential Election — Discussion

nicoco89 · 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z

Discussion about Next French Presidential Election. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 25%

Jordan Bardella 24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

$23,375,144 Vol.

Apr 30, 2027

Édouard Philippe

$373,426 Vol.

25%

Jordan Bardella

$593,970 Vol.

24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,631 Vol.

Marine Le Pen

$280,501 Vol.

Dominique de Villepin

$787,071 Vol.

Raphaël Glucksmann

$438,515 Vol.

François Hollande

$533,083 Vol.

Sarah Knafo

$935,220 Vol.

Bruno Retailleau

$873,428 Vol.

David Lisnard

$646,235 Vol.

Gabriel Attal

$819,982 Vol.

Sébastien Lecornu

$573,404 Vol.

Jean Castex

$439,617 Vol.

Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

Éric Zemmour

$327,774 Vol.

Juan Branco

$246,839 Vol.

François Ruffin

$276,849 Vol.

Bernard Cazeneuve

$280,002 Vol.

Marine Tondelier

$332,453 Vol.

<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,142 Vol.

<1%

Fabien Roussel

$813,225 Vol.

<1%

François Asselineau

$1,080,698 Vol.

<1%

Valérie Pécresse

$930,011 Vol.

<1%

Élisabeth Borne

$941,390 Vol.

<1%

Manuel Bompard

$684,980 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Bertrand

$419,205 Vol.

<1%

Olivier Faure

$642,492 Vol.

<1%

Ségolène Royal

$823,743 Vol.

<1%

Clémentine Autain

$1,261,506 Vol.

<1%

Michel Barnier

$744,790 Vol.

<1%

François Bayrou

$916,212 Vol.

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$755,180 Vol.

<1%

Clémence Guetté

$1,028,146 Vol.

<1%

Carole Delga

$676,785 Vol.

<1%

Mathilde Panot

$999,930 Vol.

<1%

Édouard Philippe 25%

Jordan Bardella 24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

$23,375,144 Vol.

Apr 30, 2027

Édouard Philippe

$373,426 Vol.

25%

Jordan Bardella

$593,970 Vol.

24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,631 Vol.

Marine Le Pen

$280,501 Vol.

Dominique de Villepin

$787,071 Vol.

Raphaël Glucksmann

$438,515 Vol.

François Hollande

$533,083 Vol.

Sarah Knafo

$935,220 Vol.

Bruno Retailleau

$873,428 Vol.

David Lisnard

$646,235 Vol.

Gabriel Attal

$819,982 Vol.

Sébastien Lecornu

$573,404 Vol.

Jean Castex

$439,617 Vol.

Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

Éric Zemmour

$327,774 Vol.

Juan Branco

$246,839 Vol.

François Ruffin

$276,849 Vol.

Bernard Cazeneuve

$280,002 Vol.

Marine Tondelier

$332,453 Vol.

<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,142 Vol.

<1%

Fabien Roussel

$813,225 Vol.

<1%

François Asselineau

$1,080,698 Vol.

<1%

Valérie Pécresse

$930,011 Vol.

<1%

Élisabeth Borne

$941,390 Vol.

<1%

Manuel Bompard

$684,980 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Bertrand

$419,205 Vol.

<1%

Olivier Faure

$642,492 Vol.

<1%

Ségolène Royal

$823,743 Vol.

<1%

Clémentine Autain

$1,261,506 Vol.

<1%

Michel Barnier

$744,790 Vol.

<1%

François Bayrou

$916,212 Vol.

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$755,180 Vol.

<1%

Clémence Guetté

$1,028,146 Vol.

<1%

Carole Delga

$676,785 Vol.

<1%

Mathilde Panot

$999,930 Vol.

<1%

Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 boosted Édouard Philippe's standing after his strong re-election as Le Havre mayor, positioning the former prime minister and Horizons leader as the top trader consensus pick at 25% implied probability to win the 2027 presidential race, narrowly ahead of National Rally's Jordan Bardella at 23.5%. While latest Elabe polls show Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 38% versus Philippe's 25.5%, second-round simulations favor Philippe in a potential runoff, reflecting RN's urban setbacks and mainstream alliances blocking far-right gains. Left fragmentation caps Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8.5%, keeping the race tight; Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote and economic pressures could tip the balance ahead of April 2027 balloting.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 30, 2026, 8:46 AM UTC

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 25%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $23.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next French Presidential Election." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23.4 million traded on “Next French Presidential Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 25¢ for "Édouard Philippe" in the "Next French Presidential Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 25% chance that "Édouard Philippe" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 25¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 75¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Next French Presidential Election" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Apr 30, 2027 — that's roughly over 1 year away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "Next French Presidential Election" market has an active community of 362 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Next French Presidential Election." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

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