Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands double-digit leads in the latest polls for the November 3, 2026, New York gubernatorial election, driving trader consensus to price a Democratic win at 91% implied probability amid the state's deep-blue status and no Republican governor since 2006. A Siena College poll from late February to early March showed Hochul at 51% to Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman's 31%, while a March McLaughlin internal poll (released March 25) narrowed it to 52%-43%; Hochul dominates her June 23 Democratic primary at 44-64% per recent surveys. This positioning reflects incumbency advantage and polling trends, with filing deadline April 6 approaching. Challenges include a Hochul scandal, primary upset, sustained poll erosion, or national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNew York Governor Election Winner
New York Governor Election Winner
$25,551 Vol.
$25,551 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
91%
Republican
9%
$25,551 Vol.
$25,551 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$25,551 Vol.
91%
Republican
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands double-digit leads in the latest polls for the November 3, 2026, New York gubernatorial election, driving trader consensus to price a Democratic win at 91% implied probability amid the state's deep-blue status and no Republican governor since 2006. A Siena College poll from late February to early March showed Hochul at 51% to Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman's 31%, while a March McLaughlin internal poll (released March 25) narrowed it to 52%-43%; Hochul dominates her June 23 Democratic primary at 44-64% per recent surveys. This positioning reflects incumbency advantage and polling trends, with filing deadline April 6 approaching. Challenges include a Hochul scandal, primary upset, sustained poll erosion, or national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$25,551End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands double-digit leads in the latest polls for the November 3, 2026, New York gubernatorial election, driving trader consensus to price a Democratic win at 91% implied probability amid the state's deep-blue status and no Republican governor since 2006. A Siena College poll from late February to early March showed Hochul at 51% to Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman's 31%, while a March McLaughlin internal poll (released March 25) narrowed it to 52%-43%; Hochul dominates her June 23 Democratic primary at 44-64% per recent surveys. This positioning reflects incumbency advantage and polling trends, with filing deadline April 6 approaching. Challenges include a Hochul scandal, primary upset, sustained poll erosion, or national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$25,551End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands double-digit leads in the latest polls for the November 3, 2026, New York gubernatorial election, driving trader consensus to price a Democratic win at 91% implied probability amid the state's deep-blue status and no Republican governor since 2006. A Siena College poll from late February to early March showed Hochul at 51% to Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman's 31%, while a March McLaughlin internal poll (released March 25) narrowed it to 52%-43%; Hochul dominates her June 23 Democratic primary at 44-64% per recent surveys. This positioning reflects incumbency advantage and polling trends, with filing deadline April 6 approaching. Challenges include a Hochul scandal, primary upset, sustained poll erosion, or national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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