Trader consensus on the New Hampshire gubernatorial race strongly favors the Republican nominee at 72.5%, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads for Kelly Ayotte over Democrat Joyce Craig in recent surveys from Emerson College (49%-37%) and American Research Group (52%-37%). Ayotte's edge stems from outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu's endorsement, her prior U.S. Senate experience, and New Hampshire's recent history of Republican gubernatorial wins despite purple-state dynamics. Craig's primary victory has not closed the gap, with no major catalysts shifting momentum; a recent debate reinforced Ayotte's frontrunner status. Early voting trends and final preelection polls ahead of November 5 could influence final trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Republican
76%

Democrat
28%

Republican
76%

Democrat
28%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the New Hampshire gubernatorial race strongly favors the Republican nominee at 72.5%, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads for Kelly Ayotte over Democrat Joyce Craig in recent surveys from Emerson College (49%-37%) and American Research Group (52%-37%). Ayotte's edge stems from outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu's endorsement, her prior U.S. Senate experience, and New Hampshire's recent history of Republican gubernatorial wins despite purple-state dynamics. Craig's primary victory has not closed the gap, with no major catalysts shifting momentum; a recent debate reinforced Ayotte's frontrunner status. Early voting trends and final preelection polls ahead of November 5 could influence final trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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