US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action through March 31 95%
March 31 2.4%
March 30 <1%
March 29 <1%
$2,660,230 Vol.
$2,660,230 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
1%
March 31
2%
Military action through March 31
95%
Military action through March 31 95%
March 31 2.4%
March 30 <1%
March 29 <1%
$2,660,230 Vol.
$2,660,230 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
$285,459 Vol.
1%
March 30
$282,262 Vol.
1%
March 31
$371,078 Vol.
2%
Military action through March 31
$573,545 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,660,230End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,660,230End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile sites under Operation Epic Fury, with Israel targeting key nuclear assets on March 27 amid Iranian counterstrikes injuring US troops in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the campaign will conclude in weeks rather than months, while Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal without commitment, and President Trump extended the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals underpin trader consensus at 94.5% for action extending through March 31. Realistic shifts could arise from a breakthrough diplomatic agreement, Iranian concessions, or abrupt ceasefire announcement before month's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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