US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, now in its second month since February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating, with IDF targeting nuclear sites including the Arak heavy water facility and Ardakan yellowcake plant on March 27, alongside missile bases in Esfahan and Yazd Provinces. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves continue, escalated March 28 by Houthi strikes on Israel, broadening the conflict. US Central Command reports over 10,000 strikes degrading Iran's ballistic missiles, navy, and production, yet Tehran rejects a 15-point US proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Traders assess prolonged military tempo against faltering ceasefire talks and risks of energy facility strikes, emphasizing uncertainty in de-escalation timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$207,477 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
<1%
March 30
1%
March 31
2%
April 15
22%
April 30
43%
May 31
77%
June 30
90%
$207,477 Vol.
March 29
$34,504 Vol.
<1%
March 30
$22,862 Vol.
1%
March 31
$87,741 Vol.
2%
April 15
$3,972 Vol.
22%
April 30
$1,811 Vol.
43%
May 31
$2,060 Vol.
77%
June 30
$208 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, now in its second month since February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating, with IDF targeting nuclear sites including the Arak heavy water facility and Ardakan yellowcake plant on March 27, alongside missile bases in Esfahan and Yazd Provinces. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves continue, escalated March 28 by Houthi strikes on Israel, broadening the conflict. US Central Command reports over 10,000 strikes degrading Iran's ballistic missiles, navy, and production, yet Tehran rejects a 15-point US proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Traders assess prolonged military tempo against faltering ceasefire talks and risks of energy facility strikes, emphasizing uncertainty in de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$207,477End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, now in its second month since February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating, with IDF targeting nuclear sites including the Arak heavy water facility and Ardakan yellowcake plant on March 27, alongside missile bases in Esfahan and Yazd Provinces. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves continue, escalated March 28 by Houthi strikes on Israel, broadening the conflict. US Central Command reports over 10,000 strikes degrading Iran's ballistic missiles, navy, and production, yet Tehran rejects a 15-point US proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Traders assess prolonged military tempo against faltering ceasefire talks and risks of energy facility strikes, emphasizing uncertainty in de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$207,477End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, now in its second month since February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating, with IDF targeting nuclear sites including the Arak heavy water facility and Ardakan yellowcake plant on March 27, alongside missile bases in Esfahan and Yazd Provinces. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves continue, escalated March 28 by Houthi strikes on Israel, broadening the conflict. US Central Command reports over 10,000 strikes degrading Iran's ballistic missiles, navy, and production, yet Tehran rejects a 15-point US proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Traders assess prolonged military tempo against faltering ceasefire talks and risks of energy facility strikes, emphasizing uncertainty in de-escalation timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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