Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman 48%

Karen Bass 28%

Spencer Pratt 11%

Rae Huang 9.2%

Polymarket

$783,960 Vol.

Nithya Raman 48%

Karen Bass 28%

Spencer Pratt 11%

Rae Huang 9.2%

Polymarket

$783,960 Vol.

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Nithya Raman

$5,767 Vol.

48%

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Karen Bass

$22,384 Vol.

28%

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Spencer Pratt

$82,130 Vol.

11%

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Rae Huang

$36,462 Vol.

9%

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Adam Miller

$83,225 Vol.

6%

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Austin Beutner

$6,169 Vol.

1%

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Rick Caruso

$424,498 Vol.

1%

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Lindsey Horvath

$15,757 Vol.

1%

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Gina Viola

$76,143 Vol.

1%

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Asaad Alnajjar

$28,489 Vol.

1%

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Monica Rodriguez

$2,937 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads recent UC Berkeley/LA Times polling (March 9-15) at 25% support amid 56% unfavorability driven by criticism over homelessness policies and Palisades fire response, yet prediction market traders price her at 29% for the June 2 primary, reflecting perceived vulnerability in a fragmented field with 25% undecided voters. Progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman, at 17% in polls but 49.5% implied probability, gains from late-entry momentum, housing affordability focus, strong backing among younger and Asian voters, and pending Democratic Socialists of America endorsement discussions. Reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 14% poll showing and 11% market odds stem from populist appeals to fire victims on cutting waste and crime, highlighting anti-incumbent sentiment ahead of the nonpartisan primary where top-two advance to November.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$783,960
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads recent UC Berkeley/LA Times polling (March 9-15) at 25% support amid 56% unfavorability driven by criticism over homelessness policies and Palisades fire response, yet prediction market traders price her at 29% for the June 2 primary, reflecting perceived vulnerability in a fragmented field with 25% undecided voters. Progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman, at 17% in polls but 49.5% implied probability, gains from late-entry momentum, housing affordability focus, strong backing among younger and Asian voters, and pending Democratic Socialists of America endorsement discussions. Reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 14% poll showing and 11% market odds stem from populist appeals to fire victims on cutting waste and crime, highlighting anti-incumbent sentiment ahead of the nonpartisan primary where top-two advance to November.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$783,960
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 48%, followed by "Karen Bass" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $784K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Nithya Raman" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Karen Bass" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.