Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Democratic Party candidate Park Chan-dae at 89% implied probability to win the Incheon mayoral election, reflecting the party's sustained national momentum after securing a supermajority in the April National Assembly elections amid President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval ratings hovering near historic lows around 30%. Recent Incheon-specific polls show Park leading incumbent People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok, priced at 4.6%, by wide margins of 20-30 points, bolstered by urban voter shifts toward the opposition on issues like housing costs and local development. Fragmented support keeps other contenders like Yoo Dong-soo and Kim Kyo-heung under 1%, with no major campaign events or scandals altering dynamics in the past week. The next local elections in June 2026 remain distant, but current trends favor challengers in battleground cities like Incheon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIncheon Mayoral Election Winner
Incheon Mayoral Election Winner
Park Chan-dae 89%
Yoo Jeong-bok 4.6%
Yoo Dong-soo <1%
Kim Kyo-heung <1%
$594,622 Vol.
$594,622 Vol.

Park Chan-dae
89%

Yoo Jeong-bok
5%

Yoo Dong-soo
1%

Kim Kyo-heung
<1%

Lee Hak-jae
<1%

Chung Il-young
<1%

Bae June-young
<1%

Park Nam-choon
<1%

Yoon Sang-hyun
<1%
Park Chan-dae 89%
Yoo Jeong-bok 4.6%
Yoo Dong-soo <1%
Kim Kyo-heung <1%
$594,622 Vol.
$594,622 Vol.

Park Chan-dae
89%

Yoo Jeong-bok
5%

Yoo Dong-soo
1%

Kim Kyo-heung
<1%

Lee Hak-jae
<1%

Chung Il-young
<1%

Bae June-young
<1%

Park Nam-choon
<1%

Yoon Sang-hyun
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Market Opened: Nov 17, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Democratic Party candidate Park Chan-dae at 89% implied probability to win the Incheon mayoral election, reflecting the party's sustained national momentum after securing a supermajority in the April National Assembly elections amid President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval ratings hovering near historic lows around 30%. Recent Incheon-specific polls show Park leading incumbent People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok, priced at 4.6%, by wide margins of 20-30 points, bolstered by urban voter shifts toward the opposition on issues like housing costs and local development. Fragmented support keeps other contenders like Yoo Dong-soo and Kim Kyo-heung under 1%, with no major campaign events or scandals altering dynamics in the past week. The next local elections in June 2026 remain distant, but current trends favor challengers in battleground cities like Incheon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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